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Day: December 21, 2018

‘I’m stunned’ by all the recession talk — Mohamed El-Erian warns against self-fulfilling prophecies

Economist Mohamed El-Erian is warning Wall Street that being overly concerned about an economic recession could actually cause one. “I’m stunned by all this talk of recession,” El-Erian said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday. “For us to get into a recession, the rest of the world has got to really slow down dramatically.” While …

‘I’m stunned’ by all the recession talk — Mohamed El-Erian warns against self-fulfilling propheciesRead More

US: Good Times for Consumers, Spending Solid and Inflation Contained

Personal income rose 0.2% in November (month-on-month), slightly below expectations for 0.3%. But, personal spending more than made up for the disappointment, rising 0.4% on top of an upward revision to October (+0.8%, prev. 0.6%). Inflation readings were soft. Overall prices were up 0.1% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year. Core prices (excluding food and energy) rose …

US: Good Times for Consumers, Spending Solid and Inflation ContainedRead More

Canadian Firms Remain Cautiously Optimistic

Canadian businesses’ spending intentions remained solid at the close of the year, as captured by the Bank of Canada’s quarterly Business Outlook Survey (BOS). The ‘BOS Indicator’ summary measure fell slightly, to 2.2 (from 2.8), but is still elevated by historic standards. Expectations for future sales dropped somewhat, with the balance of opinion at a …

Canadian Firms Remain Cautiously OptimisticRead More

Canadian October Retail Sales Inch Higher

Highlights: Retail sales increased 0.3% in nominal terms in October, but in part boosted by the incorporation of Cannabis sales post October 17th legalization. Overall sale volumes were flat in the month. E-commerce sales (which likely contain significant Cannabis sales from Ontario, where Cannabis is initially only being sold legally online) 19.3% year-over-year, well above …

Canadian October Retail Sales Inch HigherRead More

Week Ahead – Markets to Enter Christmas Lull; Risk of Volatility in Thin Trade

As the holiday period begins, markets will go into quiet mode for the next two weeks with little on the economic agenda to keep traders at their desks. However, with the market sentiment being stuck in risk-off mood, there is a threat that thin trading conditions could lead to some unexpected volatility, particularly from any …

Week Ahead – Markets to Enter Christmas Lull; Risk of Volatility in Thin TradeRead More

FOMC and President Trump Exacerbate Volatility

The past week has again seen policy makers return to centre stage as 2018’s schedule of central bank meetings concluded, and the Australian government released its mid-year update. Beginning with the domestic scene, the mid-year Federal budget update highlighted the benefit that the Government’s bottom line has received from a stronger-than-expected labour market and elevated …

FOMC and President Trump Exacerbate VolatilityRead More

NY Fed President John Williams says the Fed could re-evaluate view in 2019

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams told CNBC on Friday the Fed is open to reconsidering its views on rate hikes next year. “We are listening, there are risks to that outlook that maybe the economy will slow further,” Williams told Steve Liesman during an interview on “Squawk on the Street.” Williams …

NY Fed President John Williams says the Fed could re-evaluate view in 2019Read More

Risk Aversion Eased ahead of Holiday, But Yen Remains Strongest

Yen remains the strongest one for today even though risk aversion eased a bit ahead of long holiday weekend. Dollar is following as the second strongest, reversing a lot of post FOMC losses against Euro and Swiss Franc. Commodity currencies remain generally weak. But today, it’s Canadian Dollar that’s leading the way down. Stronger than …

Risk Aversion Eased ahead of Holiday, But Yen Remains StrongestRead More

US durable goods orders rose 0.8% in November, led by defense spending

Orders to U.S. factories for long-lasting goods rose at a modest pace last month, but the gain was driven entirely by demand for military aircraft. Excluding transportation equipment, orders fell. The Commerce Department said Friday that durable goods orders rose 0.8 percent in November, following a sharp fall of 4.3 percent the previous month when …

US durable goods orders rose 0.8% in November, led by defense spendingRead More

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