US-China Trade: Ceasefire a Reality But No Quick Fixes to Reach a Deal
As widely expected, the Xi-Trump meeting ended with a ceasefire in the trade war. The export ban on Huawei was also lifted, at least partially. The ceasefire is good news in the sense that it confirms that both sides want...
RBA Preview – Another -25 bps Rate Cut Expected This Week
We expect to RBA to cut the cash rate, by -25 bps, to 1% in July. Although this would be earlier than RBA’s projection in the May SoMP, it is largely in line with market expectations, which has priced in...
Trump keeps talking about ‘quantitative tightening,’ but he’s overstating its impact
President Donald Trump has railed repeatedly about the Federal Reserve’s “quantitative tightening” and the impact it has had on economic growth during his administration. The program will be over soon, which may not bring as much relief as Trump thinks....
Focus Turn to US Data after Trump & Xi Delivered at G20
Expectations setting were rather well set for the highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting at G20. Both sides agreed to stop raising tariffs further. But it’s unsure whether they’ve closed the huge gap that led to collapse in trade negotiations. If the...
80% of the stock market is now on autopilot
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange, May 23, 2019. Brendan McDermid | Reuters It’s no secret that machines are taking up a bigger and bigger share of investing, but the extent of their influence is...
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Incoming Data Unlikely to Dissuade Fed Cuts
U.S. Review Incoming Data Unlikely to Dissuade Fed Cuts All eyes are on President Trump and Chinese President Xi as they meet at the G-20 meeting to see if they can hammer out a trade truce. Please see our Topic...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Healthy GDP and Sentiment, Early Canada Day Gifts!
U.S. Highlights A light week on economic data was filled with Fed speeches and a trickle of news flow on the upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. We do not expect to see a major breakthrough this weekend, but...
Forward Guidance: Trade Concerns Remain, But Economic Backdrop Still Healthy
Attention remains focused on Saturday’s highly anticipated meeting of Presidents Trump and Xi as the two try to iron out their differences on the side-lines of this week’s G-20 meetings. The outcome of that meeting is still very much in...
Why Moody’s is wrong to keep Cyprus on junk status
Cyprus is now into its fifth year of vigorous economic growth, after three years (2012-2015) of steep decline caused by the banking crisis, with little indication the trade-risk vulnerabilities affecting other eurozone markets will become a limiting factor. GDP has...
By the numbers: Best June for the Dow since 1938, S&P 500’s best first half in two decades
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange. Brendan McDermid | Reuters Wall Street wrapped up a roaring June and first half of the year as investors cheered the prospects of easier monetary policy from the Federal...