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Central banks news

ECB Preview – ECB to Convince Market Low Interest Rate Still Necessary Despite Rising Inflation

The surge in electricity price has haunted the Eurozone since the last ECB meeting. Meanwhile, heightened inflation expectations have moved forward market pricing of the first post-pandemic rate hike to end-2022, significantly ahead of the central bank’s estimate. We expect ...
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BOC Preview – Further QE Tapering

As further QE tapering to CAD 1B/week has been fully priced in, the focus of this week’s BOC meeting is the forward guidance on rate hike. The market has priced in 3 rate hikes in 2022. We expect the central ...
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FOMC Minutes: QE Tapering can Come in As Soon As Mid-November

At the FOMC minutes for the September meeting, the members sent more hints about QE tapering. It is highly likely a formal announcement will be made in November, barring abrupt deterioration of pandemic condition and power shortage problems. On economic ...
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RBNZ Hiked Policy Rate for First Time in 7 Years

For the first time in 7 years, the RBNZ increased the OCR by +25 bps to 0.5% in October. Policymakers pledged to tighten further in coming months as inflation pressure continues to exceed target. Policymakers remained hopeful about the economic ...
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RBA Affirmed No Rate Hike Until 2024, Widening Policy Divergence with Counterparts

The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.1%, and asset purchases at AUD 4B/month, in October. Despite sharp rise in housing prices, policymakers chose to stick with ultra-easy monetary policy in order to achieve the inflation target and full ...
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RBA Preview – To Maintain Rate at Historical as Counterparts Begin Tightening

The RBA will maintain all monetary policy measures unchanged at next week’s meeting. That is, the cash rate, as well as the yield target on the April 2024 bond, will stay at 0.1%. Asset purchases will also be kept at ...
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RBNZ Preview – Rate Hike Cycle Begins

The RBNZ is almost certain to raise the OCR by +25 bps to 0.5% next week. The Funding-For-Lending program (FLP) will stay unchanged at NZ$28B. This should not be affected by the slowdown in economic activities in the third quarter ...
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BOE Downgraded Short-Term Growth, but Turned Slightly More Hawkish about Tightening

The BOE voted 9-0 to leave the Bank rate at 0.1% at the September meeting. The members voted 7-2 to keep the QE program at 895B pound. Deputy governor Dave Ramsden and external member Michael Saunders favored lowering the amount ...
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FOMC Review: Tapering will Start “Soon” while First Rate Hike may Come in as Soon as 2022

The Fed turned more hawkish in September, with the first rate hike pushed forward to 2022. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that QE tapering will come “soon”. The staff downgraded the GDP growth forecast for this year, but revised higher ...
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BOE Preview – How will New Members Shift the Views of Rate Hike Conditions?

Economic developments since the last meeting have raised concerns of “stagflation” in the UK, i.e. slow growth with strong inflation. As the main constraint to growth is supply chain, we do not expect this to derail BOC’s monetary policy stance ...
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FOMC Preview: Fed to Affirm Tapering Could Come This Year. Focus Turns to Dot Plot

Since the Jackson Hole symposium and the FOMC minutes, the pandemic has worsened in the US, while economic growth appears to be losing steam. These suggest that all monetary policy measures will stay unchanged with asset purchases staying at US$120B ...
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ECB to Slow Asset Purchases via PEPP. Growth and Inflation Outlook Upgraded

Two important messages delivered at the ECB meetings are: 1) the end of the front-loading of PEPP asset purchases and 2) acknowledgement of a more persistent inflation pressure. The policy rates were all kept unchanged with the main refi rate, ...
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BOC Stood Pat but Delivered Cautiously Optimistic Message

The loonie recovered modestly after the BOC meeting. As widely expected, policymakers left the overnight rate unchanged at 0.25% and QE purchases at CAD 2B/ week. Yet, they remained cautiously optimistic over the medium term economic outlook, despite disappointing GDP ...
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BOC Preview – QE Tapering to Pause as Economy Contracted in 2Q21

Torn between disappointing economic activities but rising inflation, higher vaccination rate but worsening Delta outbreak, and a federal election just 12 days after this week’s meeting, the BOC will likely stand on the sideline this month. Policymakers will keep its ...
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RBA Adopts Dovish Tapering as Delta Outbreak Expected to Hurt Growth in 3Q

At the September meeting, the RBA decided to reduce QE asset purchases to AUD 4B/week, from ADU 5B/ week previously. It also left the cash rate, as well as the yield target on the April 2024 bond, unchanged at 0.1% ...
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ECB Preview – Time to Lower Asset Purchases?

The pace of asset purchases in the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) in 4Q21 is the focus of this week’s ECB meeting. Following hawkish comments from some council members, especially chief economist Philiip Lane, hopes that an announcement related to ...
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RBNZ Left OCR Unchanged Amidst Latest Lockdown. Hawkishness Maintained

To everyone’s surprise, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 0.25% in August. The decision was made in light of the renewed New Zealand’s lockdown after a report of one coronavirus case. Policymakers, however, maintained a hawkish stance, suggesting that ...
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RBNZ Preview – Raising Rate as Least Regrets Option

The market has priced in a 25 bps hike, bringing the OCR to 0.5%, at this week’s RBNZ meeting. Much stronger-than-expected economic recovery since the last meeting, the rapidly rising inflation and inflation expectations, and a better job market are ...
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BOE Signals Earlier Unwinding of Balance Sheet. Modest Tightening On the Way

The BOE voted unanimously to keep Bank rate at 0.1%, and 7-1 to leave purchases of government bond at 875B pound. While the latter decision came less hawkish than we had anticipated (we expected 2 dissents), British pound got a ...
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BOE Preview – Awaiting Signals to Exit

The focus of this week’s BOE is whether the result of the policy review would be revealed. In particular, whether there will be guideline on BOE’s exit sequence of QE and record low policy rate. Meanwhile, economic projections in reflection ...
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