Dollar stabiliseerub pärast töötute nõudeid, kuid tagasivõtmist siiski pole

Sterling remain remains the strongest one for today, as it’s maintaining post BoE gains. Nevertheless, there is no apparent follow through buying after the initial surge. On the other hand, Dollar appears to be stabilizing mildly, and it’s receiving some support from better than expected jobless claims. Though, the key for the greenback is still tomorrow’s non-farm payroll data. Meanwhile, Gold is extending recent record run, hitting as high as 2064.85 so far. WTI crude oil retreats mildly but stays above 42 handle.

Technically, EUR/USD seems to be struggling to extend rally above 1.1908 temporary top. But still, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.1695 support holds. Similarly, outlook in GBP/USD is bullish as long as 1.2982 support holds. For AUD/USD, the equivalent support level is 0.7076. For Gold, break of 2009.40 support is needed to be the first sign of topping.

In Europe, currently, FTSE is down -1.39%. DAX is down -0.15%. CAC is down -0.71%. German 10-year yield is down -0.027 at 0.531. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.43%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.69%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.26%. Singapore Strait Times rose 1.04%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0090 to 0.020.

USA esialgsed töötute nõuded langesid 1.186k-ni, jätkates nõudeid 16.1 miljoni-ni

US initial jobless claims dropped -249k to 1186k in the week ending August 1, better than expectation of 1450k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -31k to 1338k. Continuing claims dropped -884k to 16107k in the week ending July 25. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -413k to 16628k.

BoE Bailey: Negative rates more effective in an established upswing

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank is “ready to act, should that be needed”. However, he added that while negative rates are “part of out tool box”, at the moment, “we do not have a plan to use them.

A “conclusion we tend to be drawing from other experiences is that the negative rates and their effectiveness depends on what point in the cycle you use them,” he explained.  “If you see what the ECB have done in their analysis that probably they are more effective in an established upswing than they are in a difficult downswing.”

On the economic outlook, he emphasized “forecasts can sometimes look beguilingly straightforward”. But “there’s an awful lot of risk in there ad it’s obviously distributed one way.”

BoE teeb pai, kulutused taastuvad märkimisväärselt, kuid investeeringud nõrgad

BoE jättis rahapoliitika ootuspäraselt muutmata. Pangaintress jääb 0.1% tasemele. Varade ostueesmärk on samuti 745 miljardit naela. Mõlemad otsused tehti ühehäälselt häältega 9:0. Komitee „ei kavatse rahapoliitikat karmistada enne, kui on selgeid tõendeid selle kohta, et vaba tootmisvõimsuse kõrvaldamisel ja 2% inflatsioonieesmärgi jätkusuutlikul saavutamisel on tehtud olulisi edusamme.

Majanduse osas eeldab BoE, et Ühendkuningriigi SKT on teises kvartalis 20. aasta IV kvartaliga võrreldes üle -2% madalam. SKP ei ületa 4. aasta neljanda kvartali taset enne 2019. aasta lõppu. SKP väljavaadete riskid on kalduvad allapoole. Kõrge sagedusega näitajad viitavad sellele, et alates aprillist on kulutused märkimisväärselt taastunud. Kuigi ettevõtete investeeringud on "tõenäoliselt II kvartalis märkimisväärselt langenud" ja investeerimiskavatsused on endiselt "väga nõrgad".

Prognoositakse, et töötuse määr "tõuseb oluliselt" aasta lõpuks ligikaudu 7.5%ni, mis on "kooskõlas vaba tootmisvõimsuse olulise tasemega. THI peaks langema veelgi allapoole 2% eesmärki ja aasta teisel poolel keskmiselt umbes 0.25%. Kuid THI peaks siiski kahe aasta pärast taastuma ligikaudu 2% tasemele.

UK PMI construction rose to 58.1, but employment fell as a faster pace

UK PMI Construction rose further to 58.1 in July, up from 55.3, beat expectation of 57.0. That’s the second straight month of expansion reading, and the best since October 2015. Markit said growth was led by sharp increase in house building. There was modest improvement in new order books. However, employment fell at a faster pace.

Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “Survey respondents noted a boost to sales from easing lockdown measures across the UK economy and reduced anxiety about starting new projects. However, new work was still relatively thin on the ground, especially outside of residential work, with order book growth much weaker than the rebound in construction output volumes.

“Concerns about the pipeline of new work across the construction sector and intense pressure on margins go a long way to explain the sharp and accelerated fall in employment numbers reported during July. This shortfall of demand was mirrored by the fastest rise in sub-contractor availability since November 2010 and another decline in hourly rates charged.”

Austraalia Morrison: Victoria lukk vähendab I kvartalis SKTd veelgi 7 miljardi dollari võrra 9 miljardile Austraalia dollarile

Austraalia peaminister Scott Morrison ütles, et Victoria neljanda etapi sulgemine võib kolmandas kvartalis kahandada SKPd 4 miljardi dollari ja 7 miljardi dollari vahel. Üldmõjud koos eelnevalt kehtestatud piirangutega Melbourne'is võivad maksta 9–3 miljardit Austraalia dollarit, mis on ligikaudu 10% SKTst. "Rahandusministeerium hindas nende uute piirangute mõju ja märgib, et nende hinnangute osas on suur ebakindlus," ütles Morrison. "See on raske löök."

Samuti võib üldine tööpuudus haripunkti jõuda 10% lähedal ja tegelik töötuse määr on 13%. "Hinnanguliselt - tegeliku tööpuuduse kasv - jääb vahemikku 250,000 400,000 kuni XNUMX XNUMX," ütles Morrison. "See ei tähenda tingimata inimesi, kes on töö kaotanud, vaid ka neid, kelle töö on vähenenud nulli."

USD / JPY keskpäeva perspektiiv

Igapäevased pöördenurgad: (S1) 105.32; (P) 105.59; (R1) 105.87; Veel ...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 105.20 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 106.47 will re-affirm the case of near term reversal. That is, corrective decline from 111.71 has completed with three waves down to 104.18. In this case, further rise should be seen to 108.16 resistance next. However, on the downside, break of 105.20 minor support will suggest completion of rebound from 104.18. Intraday bias will be turned back to retest this low.

Suuremal pildil püsib USD / JPY endiselt pikaajaliselt langevas kanalis, mis algas juba 118.65 (detsember 2016). Seega ei ole suundumuste pöördumise kohta veel selgeid märke. Langustrend võib endiselt ulatuda 101.18 madalaima tasemeni. Pidev 112.22 katkemine peaks siiski kinnitama langustrendi lõppemist ja muutma väljavaateid bullish 118.65 ja kõrgemaks.

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