Dollar Consolidating Losses, But No Momentum for Recovery

ພາບລວມຂອງຕະຫຼາດ

Markets are mixed in a quiet Asian session today, with little reaction to China’s trade data. Dollar is consolidating last week’s late lost but there is no apparent momentum for a rebound. On the other hand, Yen is mildly higher on sluggish stock markets in the region. Gold is struggling below 1900 handle as the current rebound loses some upside momentum. WTI crude oil also retreats just head of 70 handle.

Technically, 109.32 support in USD/JPY will be a focus for today. Break there will suggest completion of choppy rebound from 107.47. Deeper fall would then be seen to 108.55 support and below. The could be accompanied by more broad based selloff in Dollar, or Yen crosses, or both.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.34%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.75%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.14%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.83%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0103 at 0.075.

S&P maintains Australia’s AAA rating, upgrades outlook to stable

S&P Global Ratings maintained Australia’s sovereign rating at AAA, and up graded the outlook from “negative” to “stable”. It said, “the government’s policy response and strong economic rebound have reduced downside risks to our economic and fiscal outlook for Australia.”

“We expect the budget to be supported by steady revenue growth, aided by robust commodity prices and expenditure restraint,” the agency added. “We believe Australia’s external accounts are likely to remain stronger than in the past and be resilient during potential crises.”

Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg welcomed the upgrade in the outlook outlook. He described that as a “resounding expression of confidence” in the government’s policies.

ການບໍລິການ AiG ຂອງອົດສະຕາລີເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນເປັນ 61.2, ສູງທີ່ສຸດນັບຕັ້ງແຕ່ປີ 2003

Australia AiG Performance of Services Index ເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ 0.2 pts ເປັນ 61.2 ໃນເດືອນພຶດສະພາ. ນັ້ນແມ່ນຜົນໄດ້ຮັບປະຈໍາເດືອນທີ່ສູງທີ່ສຸດນັບຕັ້ງແຕ່ເດືອນຕຸລາ 2003, ເຊິ່ງຊີ້ໃຫ້ເຫັນເຖິງການຂະຫຍາຍຕົວທີ່ເຂັ້ມແຂງ. ສີ່ໃນຫ້າຂະແຫນງການບໍລິການຊີ້ໃຫ້ເຫັນການຂະຫຍາຍຕົວໃນຂະນະທີ່ອີກດ້ານຫນຶ່ງມີຄວາມຫມັ້ນຄົງຢ່າງກວ້າງຂວາງ. ສີ່ຂອງຫ້າຕົວຊີ້ວັດກິດຈະກໍາ, ການຂາຍ, ຄໍາສັ່ງທີ່ບໍ່ມີ, ການຈ້າງງານແລະການຈັດສົ່ງ, ສະແດງໃຫ້ເຫັນຜົນໄດ້ຮັບໃນທາງບວກ.

ທ່ານ Innes Willox ຫົວໜ້າ​ບໍລິຫານ​ກຸ່ມ Ai ກ່າວ​ວ່າ: “ຂະ​ແໜງ​ການ​ບໍລິການ​ຂອງ​ອົດ​ສະ​ຕາ​ລີ​ໄດ້​ຮັກສາ​ທ່າ​ແຮງ​ໃນ​ເດືອນ​ພຶດສະພາ…. ດ້ວຍ​ຄວາມ​ສາມາດ​ທີ່​ມີ​ຢູ່​ໄດ້​ຮັບ​ການ​ນຳ​ໃຊ້​ຢ່າງ​ດີ, ​ແລະ ດ້ວຍ​ບົດ​ລາຍ​ງານ​ກ່ຽວ​ກັບ​ການ​ຂາດ​ເຂີນ​ແຮງ​ງານ​ໄດ້​ກາຍ​ເປັນ​ທົ່ວ​ໄປ, ເງື່ອນ​ໄຂ​ໄດ້​ຮັບ​ການ​ຍົກ​ສູງ​ຂຶ້ນ​ໃນ​ການ​ລົງທຶນ​ໃນ​ຂະ​ແໜງ​ການ.”

ການ​ນໍາ​ເຂົ້າ​ຂອງ​ຈີນ​ໄດ້​ເພີ່ມ​ຂຶ້ນ 51.5% yoy ໃນ​ເດືອນ​ພຶດ​ສະ​ພາ, ການ​ສົ່ງ​ອອກ​ເພີ່ມ​ຂຶ້ນ 27.9% yoy

ໃນ​ໄລ​ຍະ USD, ໃນ​ເດືອນ​ພຶດ​ສະ​ພາ, ການ​ຄ້າ​ທັງ​ຫມົດ​ຂອງ​ຈີນ​ໄດ້​ເພີ່ມ​ຂຶ້ນ 37.4% yoy ເປັນ USD 482.3B. ການສົ່ງອອກເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ 27.9% yoy ເປັນ USD 263.9B, ຊ້າລົງຈາກ 32.3% yoy ຂອງເດືອນກ່ອນ. ການນໍາເຂົ້າເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ 51.5% yoy ເປັນ USD 218.4B, ເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນຈາກເດືອນເມສາຂອງ 43.1% yoy. ສ່ວນເກີນດຸນການຄ້າໄດ້ຂະຫຍາຍເປັນ USD 45.5B, ເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນຈາກ USD 42.9B, ແຕ່ພາດຄວາມຄາດຫວັງຂອງ USD 50.5B. ອັດຕາການເຕີບໂຕຂອງການນໍາເຂົ້າແມ່ນໄວທີ່ສຸດນັບຕັ້ງແຕ່ເດືອນມັງກອນ 2011.

ຈາກເດືອນມັງກອນຫາເດືອນພຶດສະພາ, ການຄ້າທັງຫມົດເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ 38.1% yoy ເປັນ USD 2271.8B. ການສົ່ງອອກເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ 40.2% yoy ເປັນ USD 1237.6B. ການນໍາເຂົ້າເພີ່ມຂຶ້ນ 35.6% yoy ເປັນ USD 1034.B. ຍອດເກີນການຄ້າສໍາລັບໄລຍະເວລາແມ່ນຢູ່ທີ່ USD 203.5B.

US Yellen: Higher interest rate environment is a plus for society and Fed

US Treasury Janet Yellen said in a Bloomberg interview that the USD 4T spending plan would be good even if it results in higher inflation and interest rates. “If we ended up with a slightly higher interest rate environment it would actually be a plus for society’s point of view and the Fed’s point of view,” she added.

“We’ve been fighting inflation that’s too low and interest rates that are too low now for a decade,” the former Federal Reserve chair said, adding that “we want them to go back to” a normal interest rate environment, “and if this helps a little bit to alleviate things then that’s not a bad thing — that’s a good thing.”

BoC and ECB to meet this week

Two central banks will meet this week. BoC is generally expected to keep monetary policy unchanged. Back in April, BoC has tapered its weekly bond purchases from CAD 4B to CAD 3B already. While the economic outlook since then appeared to improved further, the central bank will refrain from have any changes for now. Also, it would maintain the indication interest rate could be lifted in second half of next year, not earlier.

ECB will keep the policy rates unchanged this week for sure. The biggest question is what the Governing Council would do after significantly stepped up the pace of asset purchases this quarter. For now, it looks premature for the central bank to taper the purchases, given that the economy is still not totally out of the pandemic. Also, treasury yields look rather ready for a rise if ECB does indicate allowing them to rise. But any hints that ECB is ready to taper could give Euro a strong lift.

ນີ້ແມ່ນຈຸດເດັ່ນບາງຢ່າງສໍາລັບອາທິດ:

  • Monday: Australia AiG services, China trade balance; Japan leading indicators; Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, foreign currency reserves; Germany factory orders; Eurozone Sentix investor confidence.
  • Tuesday: Japan average cash earnings, bank lending, current account, GDP final, Economy Watchers sentiment; Australia NAB business confidence; Germany industrial production, ZEW economic sentiment; France trade balance; Italy retail sales’ Eurozone GDP revision; Canada trade balance; US trade balance.
  • Wednesday: New Zealand manufacturing sales, ANZ business confidence; Australia Westpac consumer sentiment; China CPI, PPI; Germany trade balance; BoC rate decision.
  • Thursday: Japan PPI; UK RICS house price balance; France industrial production; Italy industrial production; ECB rate decision; US CPI, jobless claims.
  • Friday: Japan BSI manufacturing index; New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing index; UK GDP, production, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate; Canada capacity utilization; US U of Michigan consumer sentiment.

ບົດລາຍງານປະ ຈຳ ວັນ AUD / USD

Pivots ປະຈໍາວັນ: (S1) 0.7682; (P) 0.7713 (R1) 0.7776 ເພີ່ມເຕີມ

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7772 resistance will suggest that pull back from 0.7890 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.7664 will resume the fall from 0.7890 to 0.7530 support.

ໃນຮູບພາບທີ່ໃຫຍ່ກວ່າ, ທ່າອ່ຽງຫຼຸດລົງທັງ ໝົດ ຈາກລະດັບ 1.1079 (ສູງປີ 2001) ຄວນ ສຳ ເລັດຢູ່ທີ່ 0.5506 (ປີ 2020 ຕໍ່າ) ແລ້ວ. ການເພີ່ມຂື້ນຈາກ 0.5506 ອາດຈະເປັນການເລີ່ມຕົ້ນຂອງແນວໂນ້ມໄລຍະຍາວ, ຫຼືການເພີ່ມຂື້ນທີ່ຖືກຕ້ອງ. ປະຕິກິລິຍາຕໍ່ກັບການຕໍ່ຕ້ານທີ່ ສຳ ຄັນ 0.8135 ຈະເປີດເຜີຍວ່າມັນແມ່ນກໍລະນີໃດ. ແຕ່ໃນກໍລະນີໃດກໍ່ຕາມ, ການຊຸມນຸມໃນໄລຍະກາງຄາດວ່າຈະສືບຕໍ່ຕາບໃດທີ່ການຕໍ່ຕ້ານ 0.7413 ຫັນການສະ ໜັບ ສະ ໜູນ ໄວ້.

Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy ກິດຈະກໍາ ຕົວຈິງ ການຄາດຄະເນ ກ່ອນ​ຫນ້າ​ນີ້ ສະບັບປັບປຸງ
22:30 AUD ດັດຊະນີການບໍລິການຂອງ AiG ເດືອນພຶດສະພາ 61.2 61
3:00 CNY ຍອດການຄ້າ (USD) ພຶດສະພາ 45.5B 50.5B 42.9B
3:00 CNY ການສົ່ງອອກ (USD) Y/Y ພຶດສະພາ 27.90% 41.60% 32.30%
3:00 CNY ນຳເຂົ້າ (USD) ເດືອນພຶດສະພາ 51.10% 51.50% 43.10%
3:00 CNY ຍອດການຄ້າ (CNY) ເດືອນພຶດສະພາ 296B 266B 277B
3:40 CNY ການສົ່ງອອກ (CNY) Y/Y ພຶດສະພາ 18.10% 22.20%
3:40 CNY ນຳເຂົ້າ (CNY) ເດືອນພຶດສະພາ 39.50% 32.10% 32.20%
5:00 JPY ດັດ​ຊະ​ນີ​ເສດ​ຖະ​ກິດ​ນໍາ​ຫນ້າ Apr P 103 102.9 102.5
5:45 CHF ອັດຕາການຫວ່າງງານເດືອນພຶດສະພາ 3.10% 3.10%
6:00 EUR ໂຮງງານເຢຍລະມັນສັ່ງ M/M Apr 0.40% 3.00%
6:30 CHF CPI M/M ພຶດສະພາ 0.30% 0.20%
6:30 CHF CPI Y/Y ພຶດສະພາ 0.60% 0.30%
7:00 CHF ຄັງສຳຮອງເງິນຕາຕ່າງປະເທດ (CHF) ພຶດສະພາ 914B
8:30 EUR ຄວາມເຊື່ອໝັ້ນຂອງນັກລົງທຶນ Eurozone Sentix Jun 26 21