EUR / USD sprawia, że ​​nowy 2019 jest niski, ale nie ma jeszcze sprzedaży

Przegląd rynku

Forex traders remain rather uncommitted today. Euro was weighed down by renewed weakness in German 10-year bund yield, which hit as low as 0.594. The common currency hit new 2019 low against Dollar but there is no follow through selling. Australian Dollar also recovers notably after initial weakness. On the other hand, Dollar is turning softer again after another rally attempt. The economic data released today trigger no sustainable price actions.

Technically, 1.0926 in EUR/USD remains a major focus. Decisive break will confirm resumption of medium term down trend from 1.2555. 117.55 and 132.17 minor support levels in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY will also be watched. Break will pave the way back to 115.86 and 126.54 lows respectively.

In Europe, FTSE is up 1.24%. DAX is up 0.47%. CAC is up 0.73%. German 10-year yield is down -0.008 at -0.581. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.13%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.37%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.89%. Singapore Strait Times closed flat. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0115 to -0.246.

- Reklama -

US Q2 GDP growth finalized at 2.0% annualized, unrevised

US Q2 GDP growth was finalized at 2.0% annualized rate, unrevised. It’s down from Q1’s 3.1% annualized growth. Downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment were primarily offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down.

The deceleration in realny PKB in the second quarter primarily reflected downturns in inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These downturns were partly offset by accelerations in PCE and federal government spending.

US initial jobless claims rose to 213k, slightly above expectation

US initial jobless claims rose 3k to 213k in the week ending September 21, slightly above expectation of 212k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -0.75k to 212k. Continuing claims dropped -15k to 1.65m in the week ending September 14. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -12.75k to 1.668m.

Also from US, goods trade balance widened slightly to USD -72.8B in August, below expectation of USD -73.3B.

ECB Bulletin: Differences across countries becoming more noticeable

In the Monthly Economic Bulletin, ECB noted that Eurozone growth remained “moderate” in the first two quarters of the year. “Differences across countries becoming more noticeable” in Q2. Labor markets are still improving with recent data and survey-based indicators continue to point to “positive” employment growth, with “some further moderation”.

Private consumption continues to be driven by labor market recovery. Business investment growth should be supported by accommodative financing conditions, offset partly by subdued earnings expectations. Exports growth “weakened further” in Q2. Latest economic indicators and surveys confirmed “ongoing downside risks” to growth outlook.

Meanwhile “measures of underlying inflation remained generally muted” even though “wage growth has remained robust.” Market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained at very low levels, while survey-based expectations also stand at historical lows.

German Gfk consumer sentiment rose to 9.9, recession risk not eliminated

German Gfk Consumer Sentiment for October rose to 9.9, up from 9.7 and beat expectation of 9.7. Economic Expectations improved from -12 to -9. However, it was still down -33.6 pts from 24.6 from a year ago.

Gfk noted: “According to consumers, the risk of a recession still cannot be eliminated. The trade conflict with the US as well as the lack of clarity as to whether there will be a no-deal Brexit are above all affecting export-driven companies and their suppliers though are certainly impacting the rest of the economy as well.”

“Should the German economy shrink again following the decline in the second quarter, which is already seen as a possibility by many experts, this would constitute a technical recession.”

BoJ Kuroda: Will re-examine economic and price developments at next meeting

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned that risks to economic outlook are “skewed to the downside, mainly from overseas economies.” He cited US-China trade war, China’s stimulus measures, Brexit, geopolitical risks and emerging markets are major uncertainties. He added that “global economy is slowing down and it shows no clear sign of turning for the better. Downside risks from overseas economies are heightening. US-China trade friction appears to be prolonged.”

Thus, “we are facing a situation where we need to pay more attention to the risk of the momentum toward 2% price target being undermined”. And, “with such situation in mind, we will re-examine economic and price developments at the next policy-setting meeting.” Though for now, “a moderate uptrend in wages and prices remain intact,” he said. “Prices are expected to accelerate gradually toward 2%.”

RBNZ Orr: Stopy pozostaną niskie przez kilka lat

Gubernator RBNZ Adrian Orr powiedział w przemówieniu, że niektórzy postrzegają globalne niskie stopy procentowe jako „oznaki niepokoju”. Dodał jednak, że „mogą być również szansą”, ponieważ „jesteśmy pewni, że stopy procentowe pozostaną niskie przez wiele lat, zapewniając doskonałe warunki do inwestowania”.

Orr powiedział: „w przeciwieństwie do wielu innych gospodarek OECD, dobrą wiadomością dla Nowej Zelandii jest to, że księgowość naszego rządu jest w dobrym stanie, stwarzają przestrzeń do zwiększenia inwestycji oraz że istnieje już silny impuls fiskalny ze strony wydatków i inwestycji publicznych”. Ponadto „mamy trójkę: zdrowe finanse rządowe, jasne wymagania dotyczące infrastruktury i niskie stopy procentowe dla inwestycji. To samo można powiedzieć o bilansach przedsiębiorstw w Nowej Zelandii. Przy stosunkowo niskim poziomie zadłużenia i ciągłym popycie na towary i usługi nasze przedsiębiorstwa mają dobrą pozycję”.

Perspektywa Mid-Day EUR / USD

Dzienne czopy: (S1) 1.0914; (P) 1.0968; (R1) 1.0998; Jeszcze…

EUR/USD breached 1.0926 low but quickly recovered. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 1.0926 will confirm resumption of larger down trend from 1.2555 for 1.0813 fibonacci level next. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 1.1164 resistance to bring down trend resumption eventually.

Na szerszym obrazie trwa trend spadkowy z 1.2555 (wysoki 2018). Uprzednie odrzucenie EMA tygodnia 55 również utrzymało uparty. Dalszy spadek powinien nastąpić w 78.6% zniesienia 1.0339 do 1.2555 w 1.0813. Decydująca przerwa tam będzie celować w 1.0339 (niski 2017). Z drugiej strony konieczne jest przełamanie rezystancji 1.1412, aby wskazać średnioterminowe dno. W przeciwnym razie prognozy pozostaną niedźwiedzie w przypadku odbicia.

Aktualizacja wskaźników gospodarczych

GMT Ccy Eventy Aktualne Prognoza Poprzednie Ulepszony
08:00 EUR Biuletyn Ekonomiczny EBC
08:00 EUR Podaż pieniądza M3 r/r 5.70% 5.00% 5.20% 5.10%
12:30 USD Wstępne roszczenia bezrobotnych 213 tysięcy 212 tysięcy 208 tysięcy 210 tysięcy
12:30 USD PKB w ujęciu rocznym Q2 F 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
12:30 USD Indeks cen PKB K/Q II kw. P 2.60% 2.40% 2.50%
12:30 USD Saldo handlu towarami (USD) sierpień -72.8B -73.3B -72.3B -72.5B
12:30 USD Zapasy hurtowe M/M 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% 0.10%
14:00 USD Oczekuje sprzedaży w domu M / M sierpnia 1.00% -2.50%
14:30 USD Przechowywanie gazu ziemnego 90B 84B

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