Lira sterlină se prăbușește în timp ce Marea Britanie caută renegociere irlandeză, Dolarul așteaptă FOMC și discuții comerciale

Sterling tumbled broadly as the UK opened a new chapter in Brexit negotiation with yesterday’s parliamentary amendment votes. In short, Prime Minister Theresa May needs to go back to EU to renegotiate the Irish backstop into alternative arrangements. But EU has repeated its stance on no renegotiation. For now it’s uncertain whether there could be on standoff on the issue. But so far, losses in the Pound are relatively limited as it stabilized in Asian markets.

At this point, Australian Dollar is the strongest one for today, as lifted by stronger than expected consumer inflation reading. New Zealand Dollar follows as the second. Canadian Dollar is also firm as oil prices rebound due to US sanctions on Venezuela. Swiss Franc, Yen and Dollar are the weakest ones. The greenback will look into today’s FOMC statement and press conference. Traders will also keep an eye on US-China trade talks, as high level meeting between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer starts today in Washington.

Technically, EUR/GBP’s rebound tentatively suggests that 0.8620 key support is defended. Break of 1.3012 in GBP/USD will further indicate near term topping in the Pound. With today’s rebound, AUD/USD is now looking at 0.7235 resistance and break will confirm resumption of recent rebound from 0.6722 low.

In other markets, Nikkei is currently down -0.29%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.24%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.01%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.18%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0033 at 0.007. Overnight, DOW rose 0.21%. S&P 500 dropped -0.15%. NASDAQ dropped -0.81%. 10-year yield dropped -0.032 to 2.712.

Sterling drops as UK seeks to reopen Brexit negotiation

Sterling dropped broadly after the Parliament voted 317 to 301 for Conservative MP Graham Brady’s Brexit deal amendment. Prime Minister Theresa is now required to go back to EU to renegotiate the deal to replace the Irish backstop with “alternative arrangements”. At the same time, the Parliament rejected Labour MP Yvette Cooper’s proposal to force Article 50 extension to avoid no-deal Brexit. Though, the symbolic amendments opposing no-deal Brexit was passed.

May’s spokesman said that “tonight parliament has sent a clear message that there is a way forward to secure this deal if we are able to secure changes in relation to the backstop.” And, “the EU’s position remains that they want the United Kingdom to leave with a deal. They want the UK to leave with a deal because it’s in their interests as well as those of the UK.”

However, EU repeated its stance that there will be no renegotiation. And, it’s uncertain what exactly alternative arrangements on the Irish border backstop are.

EU Tusk: Brexit withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation

On UK’s decision to seek Brexit deal renegotiations, European Council President Donald Tusk said via his spokesman “The Withdrawal Agreement is and remains the best and only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union”. “The backstop is part of the Withdrawal Agreement, and the Withdrawal Agreement is not open for renegotiation.”

Nevertheless, Tusk said “We welcome and share the UK parliament’s ambition to avoid a no-deal scenario. We continue to urge the UK government to clarify its intentions with respect to its next steps as soon as possible.” And, “If the UK’s intentions for the future partnership were to evolve, the EU would be prepared to reconsider its offer and adjust the content and the level of ambition of the political declaration… Should there be a UK reasoned request for an extension, the EU27 would stand ready to consider it and decide by unanimity.”

European Parliament Guy Verhofstadt echoed and said “we stand by Ireland,”and “there is no majority to re-open or dilute the Withdrawal Agreement in the European Parliament, including the backstop.”

Australia IPC a încetinit la 1.8%, dar a învins așteptările

Australian Dollar is lifted slightly by stronger than expected consumer inflation reading. Headline CPI rose 0.5% qoq in Q4 versus expectation of 0.4% qoq. Annual rate slowed to 1.8% yoy, down from 1.9% yoy, but beat expectation of 1.7% yoy. RBA trimmed mean CPI rose 0.4% qoq, 1.8% yoy, matched expectations. RBA weighed media CPI rose 0.4% qoq, 1.7% yoy, basically matched expectations.

Economistul șef al BRC, Bruce Hockman, a declarat: "Creșterea anuală a IPC rămâne sub 2% în trimestrul decembrie 2018, cu o creștere anuală a inflației tranzacționabile de doar 0.6%, în timp ce inflația non-tradables a crescut cu 2.4%. În ultimii patru ani, creșterea anuală a IPC a crescut doar peste procentul de 2 în două dintre ultimele trimestre 16 ".

ABS also noted that the most significant price rises this quarter are tobacco (+9.4%), domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+6.2%), fruit (+5.0%) and new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.4%). The most significant price falls this quarter are automotive fuel (-2.5%), audio visual and computing equipment (-3.3%), wine (-1.9%), and telecommunications equipment and services (-1.5%).

Direcția de orientare FOMC și planul de reducere a bilanțului au fost vizionate

The economic calendar is rather busy today. French GDP, Swiss KOF, Eurozone confidence indicators, Germany CPI and US ADP employment will also be watched. But the major focus will be on FOMC rate decision and press conference.

Fed este de așteptat să mențină rata fondurilor federale neschimbată la 2.25-2.50%. Din decembrie, ca urmare a volatilității extreme a pieței și a transformării prudente în Fedspeaks, stabilirea prețului la rata cursului Fed sa schimbat drastic. Contractele futures ale fondurilor Fed sunt acum doar prețuri în jurul valorii de 20% șansă de o excursie 25bps de către reuniunea din decembrie. Dolarul a început apoi să slăbească în linii mari. Greenback-ul a suferit o altă rundă rotundă săptămâna trecută, după un raport WSJ, sugerând că membrii Fed vor să pună capăt planului de reducere a bilanțului mai devreme decât era de așteptat.

Prima atenție va fi astăzi în îndrumări în declarație. În decembrie, FOMC a remarcat că "Comitetul consideră că unele creșteri treptate ale intervalului țintă pentru rata fondurilor federale vor fi în concordanță cu extinderea susținută a activității economice, cu condițiile puternice ale pieței muncii și cu inflația în apropierea obiectivului simetric 2 pe termen mediu. "

Dar de atunci, oficialii Fed au cântat un cor, spunând că Fed își poate permite o anumită răbdare înainte de o altă mișcare a ratei. Și scaunul Fed, Jerome Powell, a indicat chiar că Fed este flexibil să se deplaseze în orice direcție, dacă este necesar. Orice schimbare în orientarea înainte care indică o pauză ar putea da Dolarului mai multă presiune.

În al doilea rând, Powell va trebui să indice dacă există o schimbare în planul de reducere a bilanțului Fed.

Iată câteva previzualizări pe FOMC:

EUR / GBP zilnic

Pivoți zilnice: (S1) 0.8685; (P) 0.8722; (R1) 0.8788; Mai Mult…

EUR/GBP’s strong rebound and break of 0.8725 minor resistance suggests short term bottoming, after defending 0.8620 key support. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9101 to 0.8617 at 0.8802. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 0.8916. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8620 will resume larger decline from 0.9305 and target 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9101 at 0.8416.

În imaginea de ansamblu, EUR/GBP este văzută ca menținând un model pe termen lung, început de la 0.9304 (cel mai mare din 2016). Intervalul pe termen mediu este stabilit între 0.8620 și 0.9101. Erupția negativă de 0.8620 va deschide calea înapoi către suportul 0.8312. Break de 0.9101 va aduce retestarea rezistenței de 0.9304/5.

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