Sentiments Lifted by Delay of Some US Tariffs on China, But Markets Stay Cautious

Market sentiments staged a strong rebound overnight after US Trade Representative announced to delay tariffs on some Chinese imports. However, there seems to be no committed follow through buying/selling yet. DOW hit as high as 26426.97 but closed at 26279.91, up just 1.44%. It’s also technically limited below 55 day EMA at 26500. Asian markets opened generally higher but none of the major indices are up more than 1% . Big miss in Chinese data is also capping return of risk appetite.

In the currency markets, Yen was sold off sharply overnight but quickly recovers today. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are all limited below near term resistance at 107.09, 119.87 and 130.06 respectively. Thus, there is no confirmation of short term bottoming yet. Also, AUD/USD is held below 0.6822 minor resistance. USD/CAD is held above 1.3177 minor support. These development argues that trade remain generally cautious.

In Asia, Nikkei is up 0.88%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.54%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.78%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.23%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.010 at -0.224. Overnight, DOW rose 1.44%. S&P 500 rose 1.50%. NASDAQ rose 1.95%. 10-yer yield rose 0.041 to 1.680.

Delay of new tariffs on China cautiously well received

US announcement to delay new tariffs on some Chinese products was well received. Yet, traders remained cautious as it would take more time to see the real implications. The move was generally cheered by industry groups. But some analysts criticized that it’s merely an incremental positive sign. It’s too late and insufficient.

In short, the tariffs on a 21-page list of products would be delayed until December 15, subject to further negotiations between US and China. Both sides are continuing telephone conversations in preparation for a meeting in Washington in September. According to Wells Fargo‘s estimation, the tariff delay involves around 60%, or roughly USD 155B worth of goods. The products range from cellphones, laptops and other consumer goods including  baby monitors and strollers, microwaves, instant print cameras, doorbells, high chairs, musical instruments, ketchup dispensers, baby diapers, fireworks, sleeping bags, nativity scenes, fishing reels, paint rollers and food products.

In response to the news, Retail Industry Leaders Association said “removing some products from the list and delaying additional 10% tariffs on other products, such as toys, consumer electronics, apparel and footwear, until Dec. 15 is welcome news as it will mitigate some pain for consumers through the holiday season.”

The Consumer Technology Association also welcomed the the delay on some items, but added: “Next month, we’ll begin to pay more for some of our favorite tech devices – including TVs, smart speakers and desktop computers. The administration should permanently remove these harmful tariffs and find another way to hold China accountable for its unfair trading practices.”

آسٽريليا ويسٽپيڪ صارفين جي اعتماد گلاب 3.6٪، سطحي طور تي هڪ تعجب آهي

آسٽريليا ويسٽپيڪ صارفين جو اعتماد آگسٽ ۾ 3.6٪ کان 100 تائين گلاب، 96.5 کان مٿي. ويسٽپيڪ چيو ته: "ماضي طور تي اهو نتيجو ڪجهه حيران ڪندڙ طور تي اچي ٿو ته اهو سروي عالمي مالياتي مارڪيٽن سان گڏ هڪ انتشار واري پس منظر جي خلاف ڪيو ويو آهي، آمريڪا ۽ چين جي وچ ۾ واپاري تڪرار وڌائي، ASX 3.4٪ هيٺ ۽ AUD 3 ¢ US. جولاء جي سروي کان وٺي. بهرحال، اهو جولاء ۾ غير متوقع -4.7٪ زوال جي "بعد ۾" ۾ آيو آهي، پوئتي موٽڻ واري RBA جي شرح ڪٽ جي باوجود. انهي سان گڏ، مئي جي وفاقي چونڊن کانپوء سياسي يقين جي بحالي هئي.

آر بي اي جي حوالي سان، ويسٽپيڪ توقع رکي ٿو ته مرڪزي بئنڪ سيپٽمبر ۾ اسٽينڊ پيج تي، آڪٽوبر ۾ ٻي -25bps جي شرح ڪٽ پهچائڻ کان اڳ. انهي سان گڏ، فيبروري ۾ ڪيش ريٽ کي 25٪ تائين آڻڻ لاء هڪ فائنل -0.50bps منتقل ٿيندو. ويسٽپيڪ نوٽ ڪيو ته ”آر بي اي جا سگنل بلڪل واضح آهن“. ۽، مانيٽري پاليسي تي ان جي تازي بيان ۾ آر بي اي ان جي اڳڪٿين کي گھٽائي ڇڏيو افراط زر، اجرت ۽ ترقي لاء، جڏهن ته بيروزگاري جي شرح لاء ان جي اڳڪٿي کي وڌايو. اهي اڳڪٿيون انهن کي مارڪيٽ جي قيمت کي اپنائڻ جي ٽيڪنيڪل مفهوم تي ٻڌل هجڻ جي باوجود، جيڪي ٻه وڌيڪ شرح ڪٽ جي توقع ڪن ٿا.

آسٽريليا جي اجرت جي قيمت انڊيڪس گلاب 3.6٪ qoq، مضبوط عوامي شعبي جي ترقي جي پٺڀرائي تي

آسٽريليا جي اجرت جي قيمت انڊيڪس Q3.6 ۾ 2٪ qoq گلاب، پر Q4.1 ۾ -1٪ زوال کي واپس نه ڪري سگهيو. سالانه، ويج پرائس انڊيڪس گلاب 2.3٪ yoy Q2 2018 جي ​​مقابلي ۾. ABS چيف اقتصاديات، بروس هاڪمن چيو: "آسٽريليا جي معيشت ۾ مستحڪم شرح تي اجرت جي واڌ جاري آهي، چوٿين دوران مضبوط عوامي شعبي جي ترقي جي پٺڀرائي تي. هن ٽه ماهي ۾ اجرت جي واڌ ۾ سڀ کان اهم حصو صحت جي سار سنڀار ۽ سماجي مدد جي صنعت جي سرڪاري شعبي جي حصي مان آيو، جتي وڪٽوريا ۾ ٻين رياستن سان اجرت جي برابري کي يقيني بڻائڻ جي منصوبي تحت ڪيترائي وڏا واڌارا رڪارڊ ڪيا ويا.

چين جي صنعتي پيداوار 4.8 سيڪڙو تائين سست ٿي وئي، 17 سال ۾ گهٽ ۾ گهٽ، ٻيون ڊيٽا پڻ وڃائي وئي

In July, industrial production grew merely 4.8% yoy, down from 6.3% yoy and missed expectation of 6.0% yoy. It’s also the slowest growth rate in more than 17 years. Retail sales grew 7.6% yoy, down from 9.8% yoy and missed expectation of 8.6% yoy. Fixed assets investment ex rural grew 5.7% yoy, down from 5.8% yoy and missed expectation of 5.9% yoy. Surveyed unemployment rate rose from 5.1% to 5.3%.

هن National Bureau of Statistics of China insisted in a statement that the national economy performed “within the reasonable range” and “sustained generally stable growth while making further progress.” NBS spokesmen Liu Aihua also said the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war on China’s economy is controllable.

اڳتي وڌي رهيو آهي

UK inflation data will be the main focus in European session, with CPI, RPI, PPI and house price index featured. Equally importantly, Germany will release GDP, Eurozone will release GDP, employment and industrial production. Later in the day, US will release import price index.

آمريڪي ڊائون لوڊ

روزاني پيوٽ: (S1) 105.55؛ (P) 106.26؛ (R1) 107.46؛ وڌيڪ…

USD/JPY’s rebound, while strong, is limited below 107.09 minor resistance so far. Initial bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 107.09 holds, further decline is still in favor. Break of 105.04 will resume larger decline from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. In this case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.94).

وڏي تصوير ۾، 118.65 (ڊسمبر 2016) کان گهٽتائي اڃا تائين جاري آهي ۽ جوڙو ڊگهي عرصي جي گرڻ واري چينل اندر چڱي ريت رهي ٿو. 104.62 جو وقفو 100 تي 118.65 کان 104.62 کان 114.54 تائين 100.51٪ پروجئشن کي ھدف ڪندو. هينئر تائين، اسان کي 98.97 (2016 گهٽ) کان مٿي مضبوط سپورٽ جي اميد آهي ته ريبائونڊ آڻڻ لاء هيٺيون پاسي شامل آهن. ڪنهن به صورت ۾، 112.40 جو وقفو وچولي مدت جي تيزيء جي پهرين سنجيده نشاني جي ضرورت آهي. ٻي صورت ۾، واپسي جي صورت ۾ وڌيڪ گهٽتائي حق ۾ رهندي.

اقتصادي اشارن جي تازه ڪاري

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