Sterling Mildly Lower in Quiet Trading, More Brexit Drama Ahead

مارڪيٽ جو جائزو

Markets are generally quiet in a typical Monday. Sterling is trading generally lower. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s push for general election ahead of Brexit deadline will likely be voted down today. But it’s reported that he’s planning to block the parliament’s attempts at enforcing Brexit extension. At this point, Swiss Franc is the second weakest followed by Canadian Dollar. Australian Dollar is the strongest one, followed by Yen, suggesting rather calm risk sentiments.

Technically, further rises are in favor Yen crosses in general. But rebounds since last week are generally seen as corrective. Thus, we’d look for sign of loss of momentum ahead. Similarly, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD could extend current rebound. But such rises are also seen as corrective, as Dollar is pulling back. Hence, we’d also look for loss of momentum ahead.

In Asia, Nikkei rose 0.57%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.04%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.62%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.10%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0113 at -0.256.

- اشتهار -

جاپان Q2 GDP 0.3٪ qoq تي حتمي ٿي ويو، نجي واپرائڻ تي زور ڏنو ويو

جاپان Q2 جي ڊي پي جي ترقي کي حتمي شڪل ڏني وئي 0.3٪ qoq تي، نظر ثاني ڪئي وئي 0.4٪ qoq کان. معيشت 1.3٪ جي سالياني رفتار تي وڌي، 1.8٪ جي ابتدائي پڙھڻ کان تيزيء سان گھٽ. GDP deflator کي حتمي شڪل ڏني وئي 0.4٪ yoy، غير نظرثاني ٿيل.

ترقي بنيادي طور تي صارفين جي خرچن جي ذريعي هلائي وئي، جيڪا 0.6٪ qoq وڌي وئي. جڏهن ته نجي واپرائڻ ۾ اڳتي وڌڻ جي توقع ڪئي وئي آهي، اهو آڪٽوبر ۾ منصوبابندي ڪيل سيلز ٽيڪس جي واڌ مان هڪ هٽ وٺي سگهي ٿو.

ان کان علاوه، ڪاروباري سيڙپڪاري ڪمزور هئي ۽ صرف 0.2٪ qoq وڌي وئي. واپار جي تڪرارن کان عالمي سست ۽ غير يقيني صورتحال تي غور ڪندي، ڪاروباري سيڙپڪاري اڳ ۾ ئي ڪجهه لچڪ ڏيکاريا آهن. اڃان تائين، جيئن ته آمريڪا-چين واپاري جنگ Q3 ۾ تيز ٿي وئي، باقي سال جي ڪاروبار لاء وڌيڪ سرڪش آهي.

جاپان کان پڻ، موجوده اڪائونٽ سرپلس جولاء ۾ JPY 1.65T تائين محدود ٿي ويو، JPY 1.70T جي اميد کان ٿورو هيٺ.

ECB stimulus expected in the week ahead

ECB meeting this week will be a major focus as it’s widely expected to announce some sort of new stimulus program. The question is on what the package would be. Some expected a cut in already negative deposit rate, by -10bps or -20bps. The forward guidance of keeping interest rates at current level or lower could be extended. Also, there might be a restart of QE, probably in the size of EUR 45-60B per month. There could also be a tiering system on interest rate. Elsewhere, US will release CPI and retail sales. UK will release GDP, productions and employment data.

هتي هفتي لاء ڪجهه نمايان آهن:

  • Monday: New Zealand manufacturing sales; Australia home loans; Japan GDP final, current account; Swiss unemployment rate; Germany trade balance; Eurozone Sentix investor confidence; UK GDP, industrial and manufacturing productions, goods trade balance.
  • Tuesday: Japan M2, machine tools orders; China CPI, PPI; Australia NAB business confidence; UK employment; Canada housing starts, building permits.
  • Wednesday: Japan BSI manufacturing index; Australia Westpac consumer sentiment; US PPI
  • Thursday: Japan PPI, tertiary industry index; UK RICS house price balance; Germany CPI final; Swiss PPI; Eurozone industrial production, ECB rate decision; Canada new housing price index US CPI, jobless claims.
  • Friday: New Zealand Business NZ manufacturing; Eurozone trade balance; US retail sales, import prices, business inventories, U of Michigan consumer sentiment

EUR/JPY روزاني Outlook

روزاني پيوٽ: (S1) 117.70؛ (P) 117.99؛ (R1) 118.15؛ وڌيڪ….

.With 117.28 minor support intact, EUR/JPY’s rebound from 115.86 short term bottom could extend higher. Break of 38.2% retracement of 123.35 to 115.86 at 118.72 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 120.48. On the downside, break of 11.7.28 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 115.86 instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s seen as a falling leg of multi-year sideway pattern. Deeper fall could be seen to 109.48 (2016 low and below). On the upside, break of 120.78 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

اقتصادي اشارن جي تازه ڪاري

GMT سي سي سرگرمين اصل ۾ اڳڪٿي نظارو سڌاريل
22:45 NZD پيداواري سرگرمي Q2 -0.70٪ 1.00٪ 0.80٪
23:50 JPY ڪرنٽ کاتو (JPY) Jul 1.65T 1.70T 1.94T
23:50 JPY جي ڊي پي Q/Q Q2 F 0.30٪ 0.30٪ 0.40٪
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 F 0.40٪ 0.40٪ 0.40٪
1:30 AUD گھر جا قرض M/M Jul 5.00٪ 0.50٪ -0.90٪ -0.80٪
5:45 CHF بيروزگاري جي شرح آگسٽ 2.3٪ 2.30٪ 2.30٪
6:00 EUR جرمن واپاري بيلنس (EUR) جولاء 20.2B 18.8B 18.1B 18.0B
8:30 EUR يوروزون سينٽڪس سيڙپڪار اعتماد سيپٽمبر -16 -13.7
8:30 GBP ماهوار GDP M/M جولاءِ 0.10٪ 0.00٪
8:30 GBP صنعتي پيداوار M/M Jul 0.00٪ -0.10٪
8:30 GBP صنعتي پيداوار Y/Y Jul -1.00٪ -0.60٪
8:30 GBP پيداوار جي پيداوار M/M جولاء 0.00٪ -0.20٪
8:30 GBP پيداوار جي پيداوار Y/Y جولاء -1.00٪ -1.40٪
8:30 GBP تعميراتي پيداوار M/M Jul 0.20٪ -0.70٪
8:30 GBP خدمتن جو انڊيڪس 3M/3M Jul 0.10٪ 0.10٪
8:30 GBP وزيبل ٽريڊ بيلنس (GBP) Jul -9.6B -7.0B

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