President Donald Trump’s continued push to level the global playing field when it comes to trade has done little to disturb the relentless bull market in stocks.
But nothing lasts forever, and at some points investors will have to react if the tensions continue to escalate. By all indications, an acid test could come as early as week, with the administration poised to impose a range of new tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
Ngajalankeun séri skénario anu béda dina konflik AS-Cina, para ahli di FactSet parantos ngadamel skenario perang dagang anu paling awon, dimana kalolobaan ékonomi utama bakal pencét sareng AS, sareng sababaraha anu sanés, bakal ningali. pasar biruang muncul.
“In the case of the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, while financial markets still appear to be discounting the global impact of a trade war, our analysis shows that if/when the market does react, the effects will be widespread,” Ian Hissey, vice president in FactSet’s portfolio analytics group, said in a report last week.
Hissey dimodelkeun tilu skenario: kasus dasar dimana sengketa terus sapanjang jalur ayeuna sarta tegangan jeung tariffs laun escalate; hasil optimistis mana AS jeung Cina ngahontal pasatujuan lega dina mangsa nu bakal datang tapi tariffs karek ditumpukeun tetep, sarta kasus "konservatif" nu ngalibatkeun "gancang deteriorating" hubungan jeung dampak leuwih profound.
Dina nangtukeun dampak, Hissey ngagunakeun réaksi Brexit pasar, sanggeus sora 2016 nu diwenangkeun Inggris ninggalkeun Uni Éropa, salaku citakan.
Anjeunna sumping sareng hasil anu nunjukkeun saham global turun antara 8 persén sareng 17 persén, kalayan pasar di AS, Kanada sareng Israél langkung parah sareng Jepang janten hiji-hijina juara umum. Hissey teu nyadiakeun pigura waktu sabaraha lila move pasar bakal nyandak.
Dina acara perang dagang neraskeun, investor kabur ti saham bakal pilari havens aman kawas beungkeut.
Éta ogé ngahasilkeun hasil anu béda-béda, numutkeun analisa, sareng Jepang deui janten juara gedé tapi nagara-nagara sanés muncul ningali dampak boh positip sareng négatip. Hasil di pasar beungkeut anu considerably hadé ti di saham.
Sacara umum, winners jeung losers dumasar kana kumaha raket maranéhanana dihijikeun jeung AS dina Nilai tukeur. Jalma anu boga hubungan deukeut condong leungit, sedengkeun nu teu tethered kana dollar umumna winners.
"Intuisi ékonomi sigana saderhana," nyerat Hissey. "Tarif ngarugikeun ékonomi duanana pihak dagang ku nyieun inefficiencies sarta nurunkeun pertumbuhan ékonomi hareup. Ieu bakal boga dampak negatif kana pangajen pasar equity. Kahareupna ragrag dramatis ngadadak dina pangajen equity kamungkinan nyieun penerbangan ka aset kualitas.
The latest round in the tariffs is expected to take place soon, with the U.S. enacting new duties, and possible retaliation from Beijing. The U.S. trade deficit with China expanded by $36.8 billion in July and is now at $222.6 billion year to date, according to the Census Bureau.
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