Sentiments Lifted by Delay of Some US Tariffs on China, But Markets Stay Cautious

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Market sentiments staged a strong rebound overnight after US Trade Representative announced to delay tariffs on some Chinese imports. However, there seems to be no committed follow through buying/selling yet. DOW hit as high as 26426.97 but closed at 26279.91, up just 1.44%. It’s also technically limited below 55 day EMA at 26500. Asian markets opened generally higher but none of the major indices are up more than 1% . Big miss in Chinese data is also capping return of risk appetite.

In the currency markets, Yen was sold off sharply overnight but quickly recovers today. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are all limited below near term resistance at 107.09, 119.87 and 130.06 respectively. Thus, there is no confirmation of short term bottoming yet. Also, AUD/USD is held below 0.6822 minor resistance. USD/CAD is held above 1.3177 minor support. These development argues that trade remain generally cautious.

In Asia, Nikkei is up 0.88%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.54%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.78%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.23%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.010 at -0.224. Overnight, DOW rose 1.44%. S&P 500 rose 1.50%. NASDAQ rose 1.95%. 10-yer yield rose 0.041 to 1.680.

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Delay of new tariffs on China cautiously well received

US announcement to delay new tariffs on some Chinese products was well received. Yet, traders remained cautious as it would take more time to see the real implications. The move was generally cheered by industry groups. But some analysts criticized that it’s merely an incremental positive sign. It’s too late and insufficient.

In short, the tariffs on a 21-page list of products would be delayed until December 15, subject to further negotiations between US and China. Both sides are continuing telephone conversations in preparation for a meeting in Washington in September. According to Wells Fargo‘s estimation, the tariff delay involves around 60%, or roughly USD 155B worth of goods. The products range from cellphones, laptops and other consumer goods including  baby monitors and strollers, microwaves, instant print cameras, doorbells, high chairs, musical instruments, ketchup dispensers, baby diapers, fireworks, sleeping bags, nativity scenes, fishing reels, paint rollers and food products.

In response to the news, Retail Industry Leaders Association said “removing some products from the list and delaying additional 10% tariffs on other products, such as toys, consumer electronics, apparel and footwear, until Dec. 15 is welcome news as it will mitigate some pain for consumers through the holiday season.”

The Consumer Technology Association also welcomed the the delay on some items, but added: “Next month, we’ll begin to pay more for some of our favorite tech devices – including TVs, smart speakers and desktop computers. The administration should permanently remove these harmful tariffs and find another way to hold China accountable for its unfair trading practices.”

Kapercayaan Konsumén Westpac Australia naék 3.6%, superficially kejutan

Kapercayaan Konsumén Westpac Australia naék 3.6% ka 100 dina bulan Agustus, naék tina 96.5. Westpac ngadawuh: "Superficially hasilna ieu rada reuwas nunjukkeun yen survey ieu dilakukeun ngalawan backdrop ngagalura jeung pasar finansial global roiled ku escalating tegangan dagang antara AS jeung Cina, ASX turun 3.4% jeung AUD kaluar 3¢ AS. saprak survey Juli." Sanajan kitu, éta datang dina "sanggeus" tina kaduga -4.7% ragrag dina bulan Juli, sanajan back-to-deui motong laju RBA. Ogé, aya restorasi kapastian politik saatos pamilihan Féderal Méi.

Ngeunaan RBA, Westpac ngarepkeun bank sentral bakal nangtung halaman dina bulan Séptémber, sateuacan ngirimkeun potongan laju -25bps dina Oktober. Ogé, bakal aya gerakan final -25bps pikeun nyandak Cash Rate ka 0.50% dina bulan Pebruari. Westpac nyatet yén "sinyal ti RBA cukup jelas". Jeung, Dina Pernyataan panganyarna na on Kawijakan Moneter nu RBA lowered ramalan na keur inflasi, gajih na pertumbuhan, bari ngangkat ramalan na keur tingkat pangangguran. Ramalan éta sanaos dumasar kana asumsi téknis pikeun ngadopsi harga pasar, anu ngarepkeun dua potongan harga deui.

indéks harga upah Australia naek 3.6% qoq, dina tonggong tumuwuhna sektor publik kuat

Indéks Harga Upah Australia naék 3.6% qoq dina Q2, tapi henteu tiasa ngabalikeun turunna -4.1% dina Q1. Taunan, Indéks Harga Upah naek 2.3% yoy dibandingkeun Q2 2018. Kapala Ékonom ABS, Bruce Hockman ngadawuh: "Pertumbuhan Upah terus dina laju ajeg dina ékonomi Australia dina tonggong pertumbuhan sektor publik kuat leuwih kuartal. Kontribusi anu paling penting pikeun kamekaran upah saparapat ieu asalna tina komponén sektor publik dina industri kasehatan sareng bantosan sosial, dimana sajumlah paningkatan ageung kacatet di Victoria dina rencana pikeun mastikeun paritas upah sareng nagara-nagara sanés.

Produksi industri Cina ngalambatkeun kana 4.8%, panghandapna dina 17 taun, data sanésna ogé lasut

In July, industrial production grew merely 4.8% yoy, down from 6.3% yoy and missed expectation of 6.0% yoy. It’s also the slowest growth rate in more than 17 years. Retail sales grew 7.6% yoy, down from 9.8% yoy and missed expectation of 8.6% yoy. Fixed assets investment ex rural grew 5.7% yoy, down from 5.8% yoy and missed expectation of 5.9% yoy. Surveyed unemployment rate rose from 5.1% to 5.3%.

nu National Bureau of Statistics of China insisted in a statement that the national economy performed “within the reasonable range” and “sustained generally stable growth while making further progress.” NBS spokesmen Liu Aihua also said the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war on China’s economy is controllable.

pilari payun

UK inflation data will be the main focus in European session, with CPI, RPI, PPI and house price index featured. Equally importantly, Germany will release GDP, Eurozone will release GDP, employment and industrial production. Later in the day, US will release import price index.

USD / JPY Daily Outlook

Pivots poean: (S1) 105.55; (P) 106.26; (R1) 107.46; Tambih deui…

USD/JPY’s rebound, while strong, is limited below 107.09 minor resistance so far. Initial bias remains neutral for the moment. As long as 107.09 holds, further decline is still in favor. Break of 105.04 will resume larger decline from 112.40 to 104.69 low. Break will target 100% projection of 112.40 to 106.78 from 109.31 at 103.69. On the upside, though, break of 107.09 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. In this case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 107.94).

Dina gambar anu langkung ageung, turunna tina 118.65 (Des 2016) masih aya dina kamajuan sareng pasangan éta tetep saé dina saluran ragrag jangka panjang. Putus tina 104.62 bakal sasaran 100% proyéksi 118.65 mun 104.62 ti 114.54 di 100.51. Pikeun ayeuna mah, urang kukituna nyangka rojongan kuat luhur 98.97 (2016 low) ngandung downside mawa rebound. Dina sagala hal, putus tina 112.40 diperlukeun pikeun tanda serius mimiti bullishness istilah sedeng. Upami teu kitu, turunna salajengna bakal tetep dina kahadean bisi rebound.

Ékonomi Indikator Update

GMT Ccy kajadian saleresna ramalan saméméhna dirévisi
23:50 JPY Pesenan Mesin M / M Jun 13.90% -1.00% -7.80%
00:30 AUD Westpac Kapercayaan Konsumén Aug 3.60% -4.10%
01:30 AUD Indéks Harga Upah Q / Q Q2 0.60% 0.50% 0.50%
02:00 CNY Aset Maneuh Ex Padésan YTD Y/Y Jul 5.70% 5.90% 5.80%
02:00 CNY Produksi Industri Y/Y Jul 4.80% 6.00% 6.30%
02:00 CNY Penjualan Eceran Y/Y Jul 7.60% 8.60% 9.80%
02:00 CNY Surveyed Laju Pangangguran Jul 5.30% 5.10%
06:00 eur GDP Jérman Q/Q Q2 P -0.10% 0.40%
08:30 GBP CPI M/M Jul -0.10% 0.00%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Jul 1.90% 2.00%
08:30 GBP Inti CPI Y/Y Jul 1.80% 1.80%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M Jul 0.00% 0.10%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Jul 2.80% 2.90%
08:30 GBP Input PPI M/M Jul 0.60% -1.40%
08:30 GBP Input PPI Y/Y Jul 0.30% -0.30%
08:30 GBP PPI Kaluaran M/M Jul 0.10% -0.10%
08:30 GBP Kaluaran PPI Y/Y Jul 1.70% 1.60%
08:30 GBP PPI Kaluaran Core M/M Jul 0.10% 0.10%
08:30 GBP Inti Kaluaran PPI Y/Y Jul 1.70% 1.70%
08:30 GBP Indéks Harga Imah Y/Y Jun 1.00% 1.20%
09:00 eur Eurozone Produksi Industri M / M Jun -1.40% 0.90%
09:00 eur Pakasaban Eurozone Q/Q Q2 P 0.30% 0.30%
09:00 eur GDP Zona Euro Q/Q Q2 P 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD Indéks Harga Impor M / M Jul -0.10% -0.90%
14:30 USD Inventory Minyak Bumi -2.5M 2.4M

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