Fokus Ngahurungkeun Yen sareng Penjualan Franc nalika Rally Résiko Diteruskeun

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Global stock markets continue with impressive rally today, with focuses on back-to-normal optimism. Germany’s DAX is even more impressive, with more than 3.7% against at the time of writing, after a three-day break. It’s supported by news that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling coalition is working on another massive stimulus package. Risks like US-China tensions are ignored. It seems that no-one even talk about the risk of coronavirus resurgence in the US, due to ongoing protests.

In the currency markets, Dollar is in no doubt under heavy selling pressure. Yet, focus has shifted more to selling Yen and Swiss Franc. Australian Dollar remains the strongest one for today, followed by Sterling and then Canadian. Technically, USD/JPY’s break of 108.08 suggests resumption of rise form 105.98 and reaffirm the case that correction from 111.71 has completed. Further rise would be seen to 109.38 resistance. EUR/JPY is eyeing 121.14 and break will put 122.87 key medium term resistance in focus. GBP/JPY’s break of 135.74 resistance confirms resumption of whole rebound from 123.94. A focus would be whether rally in USD/JPY could help Dollar rebound from key support level against Euro, and Aussie.

In Europe, FTSE is currently up 1.00%. DAX is up 3.71%. CAC is up 1.99%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.002 at -0.406. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.19%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.11%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.20%. Singapore Strait Times rose 2.38%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0002 to 0.010.

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AUD/JPY breaks medium term trend line resistance

AUD/JPY surges sharply today as the top gainer so far, on the back of strong risk appetite in the market. Break of medium term falling trend line today as another signal of trend reversal. That is, firstly, whole fall from 90.29 should have completed at the 59.89 spike low. Outlook will stays bullish as long as 69.93 support holds. AUD/JPY should now target 38.2% retracement of 105.42 to 59.89 at 77.28 next. There is prospect of further rally to long term channel resistance at 80.80 in medium term.

Jero downturn kirang ti ekspektasi saméméhna, tapi RBA tetep pageuh ditahan

RBA ninggalkeun kawijakan moneter unchanged sakumaha lega ekspektasi. Laju tunai dilaksanakeun dina 0.25%. Target pikeun ngahasilkeun beungkeut pamaréntah 3 taun ogé dilaksanakeun di 0.25%. Ieu mertahankeun jangji yén, nepi ka kamajuan dijieun nuju pagawean pinuh sarta inflasi, "Dewan moal ningkatkeun target laju tunai". Ogé, target ngahasilkeun AGS 3 taun bakal "tetep di tempatna".

The Bank had just purchased government bonds on one occasions since last meeting. Total purchase to date reached AUD 50B only too. Though, it remains ” to scale-up its bond purchases again and will do whatever is necessary to ensure bond markets remain functional and to achieve the yield target for 3-year AGS.”

Dina ékonomi, RBA ceuk jerona downturn bakal "kirang ti ekspektasi saméméhna". Laju inféksi koronavirus anyar di Australia parantos "nurunkeun sacara signifikan" sareng sababaraha larangan parantos "ngagampangkeun langkung awal tibatan anu disangka sateuacana". Ogé, jam digawé bisa geus stabilized dina awal Méi bari aya pickup di sababaraha belanja konsumen.

Padahal, "pandangan, kalebet sifat sareng kagancangan pamulihan anu dipiharep, tetep teu pasti sareng pandémik sigana gaduh pangaruh anu berkepanjangan dina ékonomi.

Surplus akun ayeuna Australia ngalegaan ka AUD 8.4B, dampak koronavirus dibuktikeun

surplus akun ayeuna Australia widened utamana ka AUD 8.4B dina Q1, naek ti AUD 1.7B jeung ngéléhkeun ekspektasi AUD 6.3B. Surplus akun ayeuna didorong ku surplus dagang tina AUD 19.2B sareng narrowing deficit panghasilan net ka AUD 10.6B. Dina istilah volume ranté disaluyukeun seasonally, kasaimbangan on barang sarta jasa surplus kedah nyumbangkeun 0.5% kana pertumbuhan GDP Q1.

Kapala Ékonom ABS Bruce Hockman nyarios: "Dampak COVID-19 dibuktikeun dina Balance of Payments kuartal ieu, kalayan turunna impor sareng ékspor barang sareng jasa dina istilah volume".

Ogé dileupaskeun, penjualan barang sareng jasa manufaktur naék 2.2% qoq dina Q1. Sakabeh dagang diobral naek 1.6% qoq. Inventory turun -1.2% qoq. Keuntungan operasi kotor perusahaan naék 1.1% qoq. gajih jeung gaji éta datar.

Istilah perdagangan Selandia Anyar turun -0.7% dina Q1 nalika coronavirus pencét

Selandia Anyar istilah indéks dagang turun -0.7% qoq di Q1, leuwih goreng ti ekspektasi naékna 1.3%. Volume ékspor naek 1.8% qoq bari volume impor turun -3.9% qoq. Harga ékspor turun -0.2% qoq bari harga impor naek 0.5% qoq. Gemblengna nilai ékspor pikeun barang naek 3.6% qoq ka NZD 15.1B bari nilai impor turun -1.9% qoq ka NZD 15.1B.

"Turunna harga ékspor bertepatan sareng wabah COVID-19, anu dinyatakeun pandémik global dina Maret 2020," saur manajer pangiriman harga bisnis Geoff Wong. "Wabah COVID-19 mangaruhan paménta di pasar ékspor sareng ngaganggu ranté pasokan, sapertos angkutan laut sareng udara."

Ogé dileupaskeun, idin wangunan turun -6.5% mom dina April, dibandingkeun jeung Maret -21.7% mom turunna.

Outlook Pertengahan Poé USD/JPY

Pivots poean: (S1) 107.35; (P) 107.61; (R1) 107.83; Tambih deui..

USD/JPY’s rise from 105.98 resumed by breaking 108.08 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 109.38 resistance first. Corrective fall from 111.71 should have completed at 105.98 already. Break of 109.38 will target a test on 111.71 high. On the downside, break of 107.08 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 105.98 low instead.

Dina gambar anu langkung ageung, dina waktos ieu, turunna sadayana tina 118.65 (Des 2016) terus nunjukkeun tampilan korektif, kalayan nyalurkeun ogé. Tacan aya tanda-tanda parantos réngsé. Putus tina 101.18 bakal sasaran 98.97 (2016 low). Samentara éta, putus sustained of 112.22 kedah mastikeun parantosan turunna jeung ngahurungkeun outlook bullish pikeun 118.65 sarta luhur.

Ékonomi Indikator Update

GMT Ccy kajadian saleresna ramalan saméméhna dirévisi
22:45 NZD Izin Ngawangun M/M Apr -6.50% -21.30% -21.70%
22:45 NZD Sarat Dagang Index Q1 -0.70% 1.30% 2.60% 2.80%
23:50 JPY Dasar Moneter Y / Y Méi 3.90% 2.60% 2.30%
1:30 AUD Rekening Ayeuna (AUD) Q1 8.4B 6.3B 1.0B 1.7B
1:30 AUD Kauntungan Usaha Kotor Perusahaan Q/Q Q1 1.10% 0.00% -3.50%
4:30 AUD Putusan Rate Bunga RBA 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
6:30 CHF Penjualan Eceran Nyata Y/Y Apr -19.90% -4.90% -5.60% -5.80%
7:30 CHF SVME PMI Méi 42.1 42.1 40.7
8:30 GBP Persetujuan KPR Apr 16K 34K 56K
8:30 GBP M4 Duit Supply M / M Apr 1.50% 2.50% 2.80% 3.20%