Dollar jiddiy chakana savdosi bilan bog'liq, lekin hatto xavfli xavfga qarshi yana kuchliroq

Dollar jumps higher in early US session as supported by strong retail sales data. But the greenback is once again outshone by Yen on risk aversion. At the time of writing, DAX is down -1.22%, CAC is down -1.19% and FTSE is down -1.17%. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei lost -0.68%, HK HSI dropped -1.55%, Shanghai SSE declined -2.08%.

But Turkish Lira is not the one to blame today as USD/TRY has indeed dipped further and breached 6.0 handle. Instead, poor earnings results of Tencent, selloff in Copper and Zinc which hit one year low are among the factors. And more importantly, we see selloff in Chinese Yuan, with USD/CNH hitting as high as 6.934 as a major reason. Meanwhile, Gold is accelerating downward after taking out 1200 earlier this week, hitting as low as 1183.93 so far. WTI crude oil is under renewed pressure and is back at 66.3, and that’s a reason for Canadian Dollar’s weakness too.

Technically, though, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY are still holding above Monday’s low at 125.13, 140.23 and 79.97 respectively. Thus, they’re still considered as in consolidation. But these levels will for sure be watched. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD are staying in healthy decline and starts to pick up some momentum ahead. 0.9984 resistance in USD/CHF is the level to watch for the session too.

US retail sales showed strong growth, but industrial production disappoints

US headline retail sales rose strongly by 0.5% in July, much higher than expectation of 0.41% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.6%, also beat expectation of 0.4%. Empire State manufacturing index rose to 25.6 in August, up from 22.6 and beat expectation of 20.3. Non-farm productivity rose 2.9% in Q2, above expectation of 2.5%. But industrial production rose only 0.1% mom in July, missed expectation of 0.3% mom.

UK CPI rose to 2.5%, core CPI unchanged at 1.9%

UK headline CPI rose to 2.5% yoy in July , up from 2.4% yoy and met expectation. Core CPI was unchanged at 1.9% yoy, met expectation. RPI, however, slowed notably to 3.2% yoy, down from 3.4% yoy and missed expectation of 3.6% yoy. PPI input rose to 10.9% yoy, up from 10.3% yoy, above expectation of 10.8% yoy. PPI output slowed to 3.1% yoy, down from 3.3% yoy and missed expectation of 3.2% yoy. PPI output core dropped to 2.2% yoy, down from 2.4% yoy, missed expectation of 2.2% yoy. House price index slowed to 3.0% yoy in June, slowed from 3.5% yoy, above expectation of 2.8% yoy.

The rise is headline CPI is in line with BoE’s own projection today. In the August Inflation Report, the bank projected CPI to climb to 2.5% in Q3 this year. The question is whether inflation will then slow from there. BoE expects CPI to slow to 2.2% in Q3 2019. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research pointed out that stripping out extreme price moves, CPI has indeed dropped in July. The trend reversal will likely emerge ahead.

SNB Zurbruegg: Recent developments show fragility in currency markets

SNB Vice Chairman Fritz Zurbruegg said in an even in Zurich that recent developments have shown that “the currency markets remain fragile”. And that could lead to “safe have flows in the Swiss Franc”. And that means, the central bank’s current ultra loose monetary policy with negative interest rate is justified. And SNB stands ready to intervene when necessary. Some analysts tipped 1.2 as a level where SNB would start being active in intervention.

Turkish Lira rebounds further despite trade spat with US.

Turkey’s clashes with the US has turned into trade war. The country doubled tariffs on some US imports including alcohol, cars and tobacco, in response to US doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs. Vice President Fuat Oktay tweeted that the moves are for US “deliberate attacks on our economy.” However, relations with EU seemed to have improved after a Turkish court released two Greek soldiers pending trial. Additionally, the CBRT is squeezing liquidity as observed by bankers, which helped pushed interest rates higher.

USD/TRY dropped to as low as 5.9180 earlier today and stays soft.

Avstraliyada iste'molchilarning fikri -2.3% pasaygan, ish haqi narxi 0.6% ga o'sgan

Avstraliyaning Westpac Melburn institutining iste'molchilarga nisbatan kayfiyati -2.3% ga pasayib, avgust oyida 103.6 darajasiga tushib, 106.1 dan past bo'ldi. Ko'rsatkich "iyun oyidagi ajablanarli darajada kuchli daromadlarning yarmini Julga qaytarib berdi", chunki hukumat tomonidan soliqlarni kamaytirishning ta'siri pasayib ketdi. Bu pasayish, shuningdek, Sidney va Melburnda global savdo keskinligining ko'tarilishi va uy-joy bozorlarini tuzatish fonida yuzaga keldi.

Westpac, RBA-ning 2.25 yilga kelib inflyatsiya darajasi 2020% ni tashkil etishi va keyingi harakatni kutayotganligini ta'kidladi. RBA uchun "aniq shamol" bu "inflyatsiya darajasidagi besh yillik ishlamaslikning uy xo'jaliklari va firmalarning kutishlariga ta'siri". Va, "kutishlarning pasayishi inflyatsiyani guruhga qaytarishni ancha qiyinlashtiradi". Westpac, shuningdek, "albatta, bankda naqd pul stavkasini o'zgartirish masalasi paydo bo'lguncha biroz vaqt o'tishi kerak", deb ta'kidladi. Va RBA 2018 yilda ham, 2019 yilda ham umuman bo'ladi degan fikrni saqlaydi.

Shuningdek, Avstraliyadan ish haqi indekslari kutilgan natijalarga muvofiq 0.6% ga, 2.1% ga o'sdi. Xususiy sektorda ish haqi narxi 2 foizga, har yili 0.5 foizga o'sdi. Davlat sektorida ish haqi 2.0% ga, o'tgan yilga nisbatan 0.6% ga o'sdi.

EUR / USD kunlik ko'rinish

Kunlik pivotslar: (S1) 1.1306; (R) 1.1367 (R1) 1.1404; Ko'proq…..

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside as down trend continues. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2413 to 1.1509 from 1.1745 at 1.1186. Note that it’s a cluster level with 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Hence, we’ll tentatively look for short term bottoming around 1.1186. On the upside, above 1.1430 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again.

Kattaroq rasmda 1.2555 o'rta muddatli pasayish tendentsiyasi 61.8-da 1.0339-ning 1.2555-ga 1.1186% retracement-da davom etmoqda. Yana shuni esda tutingki, EUR / USD 38.2 darajasida 1.6039 (2008 yildagi yuqori) ning 1.0339% qayta tiklanishi bilan 2017 (1.2516 yildagi past) gacha rad etildi. Bu ba'zi uzoq muddatli pasayishlarni keltirib chiqaradi. 1.1186-ning barqaror tanaffusi 1.0339-ni qayta sinovdan o'tkazishga yo'l ochishi mumkin. Hozircha 1.1851 qarshilik kuchaygan taqdirda ham, kuchli tiklanish holatida ham, prognoz pasayish darajasida qoladi.

Iqtisodiy ko'rsatkichlar yangilanishi