Jefferies says AMD could triple its market share due to Intel’s supply problem

Jefferies believes AMD shares can go higher even after the chipmaker’s stock stunning rise this year.

The firm raised its price target for AMD shares to $36 from $30, predicting big market share gains for the chipmaker due to Intel’s processor shortages. Jefferies also reiterated its buy rating for the shares.

“Fubon’s report that Intel will undersupply the PC market between 4Q18 and 2Q19 leaves us with higher conviction that AMD will report improving revenue, pricing and margins near term, and that is positioned to take share in the high end PC MPU and server market long term,” analyst Mark Lipacis said in a note to clients entitled “INTC Supply Constraints = Multi-Fold Benefits to AMD” Friday.

AMD shares are down slightly Friday.

Lipacis cited a report from research firm Fubon, which said HP will adopt AMD processors for up to 30 percent of its consumer PCs next year and Dell will use more AMD chips for its commercial PC line.

As a result, the analyst predicts AMD may be able to triple its market share to 30 percent of the processor market from 10 percent today.

There is “share shift potential to 70/30 from 90/10,” he said. “Assuming our assessment of AMD’s transistor lead in 2019 is correct, and Intel’s supply constraints linger through mid-19, we think a market share of 70/30 is not out of the question.”

Last week J.P. Morgan said Intel’s chip shortage is ‘worsening.’ The firm said Intel is having capacity issues from its delays moving to next-generation 10-nanometer manufacturing technology.

On Thursday, Micron confirmed industry PC processor shortages are hurting demand for its memory chips.

AMD’s stock is significantly outperforming the market this year. Its shares are up 203.3 percent year to date through Thursday versus the S&P 500’s 9.6 percent gain. The company’s stock is the top-performing name in the S&P 500 this year.