Dollar turned mixed after yesterday rally attempt met with no follow through commitments from bulls. Trump reiterated his attack on Fed and on Jay Powell personally. Comments from Fed officials were mixed. But the greenback paid little attention overall. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are again the strongest ones today but upside is very limited. Both are indeed limited below last week’s high against peers. Meanwhile, Yen, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar are the weaker ones today.
Technical, among the major pairs and crosses, USD/JPY is the one making clear progress as it’s on track for a test on 114.20/73 resistance zone, with solid momentum. USD/CAD’s break of 1.3318 suggest rise resumption for 1.3385 resistance. Otherwise, there’s a lot of hesitations, most notably in USD/CHF ahead of parity.
In other markets, US equities closed broadly higher today, with DOW gained 0.44% to 24748.73. S&P 500 rose 0.33% but NASDAQ just added 0.01%. Treasury yield were slightly lower with 10 year yield down -0.017 at 3.055, as recent consolidations extend. Asian markets recover generally today. At the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.00%, Hong Kong HSI up 0.91%, China Shanghai SSE up 0.79% and Singapore Strait Times up 0.23%.
Trump: Fed is a much bigger problem than China
Trump expressed his dissatisfaction on Fed Chair Jerome “Jay” Powell again yesterday. He told the Washington post that “So far, I’m not even a little bit happy with my selection of Jay. Not even a little bit.” He went further and said “Fed is a much bigger problem than China”.
He added “and I’m not blaming anybody, but I’m just telling you I think that the Fed is way off-base with what they’re doing.” He pointed to China and Euro being “accommodative”. But “we’re not getting any accommodation”.
Trump complained again that “I’m doing deals, and I’m not being accommodated by the Fed.” And, “they’re making a mistake because I have a gut, and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.”
Fed Clarida: US expansion could become longest in in history in 2019
Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said in a speech that the US economic fundamentals are “robust”. And if the economic expansion continues in 2019 as he expected, “this will become the longest US expansion in recorded history”.
And, at this stage of the interest rate cycle, it will be “especially important to monitor a wide range of data” for the path of Fed’s policy interest rates. “Data dependence” should play in two distinct roles of “formulation and commination” of monetary policy.
He also noted that “as the economy has moved to a neighborhood consistent with the Fed’s dual-mandate objectives, risks have become more symmetric and less skewed to the downside”.
Fed Bullard: No doubt the US economy will slow in 2019 and 2020
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said “I don’t have any reason to doubt the economy will slow in 2019 and 2020. It would be much tougher for the Fed to continue to raise at this pace in a slowing economy relative to where we have been.”
He also warned that “the good news won’t last forever, and if potential growth really is at 1.8 percent the economy is going to return to some level more like that.” He added, “the question in my mind is what are we trying to control? We have already been preemptive…We took all this action and it has put us in good shape.”
And, “if we had not had these surprises to the upside my story would have looked better in retrospect than it does,” Bullard said. “As a baseline most forecasts have the economy slowing down…That is the basic structure we are working with going into 2019.”
White House Kudlow: Xi has an opportunity to change the tone and the substance of trade talks
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the dinner meeting between Trump and Xi at G20 this week could “turn the page” on a US-China trade war. But so far, he complained that China’s “responses have disappointed because … we can’t find much change in their approach”. He urged that “President Xi has an opportunity to change the tone and the substance of these talks”. And “Trump has indicated he is open – now we need to know if President Xi is open.”
Kudlow also said that in Trump’s view “there is a good possibility that a deal can be made, and that he is open to that.” But he also emphasized “certain conditions have to be met”. Some issues including intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, ownership of American companies in China, high tariffs and non-tariff barriers on commodities, and commercial hacking, must be solved.
However, if there is no progress, Kudlow said Trump is prepared to raise tariffs on $200 billion of imports to 25 percent from current levels of 10 percent on January 1. In addition, Trump could add tariffs on another $267 billion of imports. Kudlow said regarding Trump’s stance on this that “as we’ve all learned, he means what he says”.
China ambassador to US: Using treasuries as weapon could backfire
Chinese ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, said that no one in Beijing is thinking seriously about using US treasuries as a weapon in trade war. HE said that it could “backfire”. Cui emphasized that “We don’t want to cause any financial instability in global markets. This is very dangerous, this is like playing with fire”.
Cui repeated the usual Chinese rhetoric that “we are against any trade war”, but China would “fight to safeguard our own interests.” And he also criticized so far “I have not seen sufficient response from the U.S. side to our concerns.” He emphasized “we cannot accept that one side would put forward a number of demands and the other side just has to satisfy all these things.”
UK PM May to tell Scotland: Brexit deal protects jobs
UK Prime Minister Theresa May will continue her nationwide Brexit deal sales tour today and Scotland is the next destination. May is expected to say “it is a deal that is good for Scottish employers and which will protect jobs.” And, the agreement would create a new free trade area of “unprecedented economic relationship that no other major economy has.”
May would also add that “at the same time, we will be free to strike our own trade deals around the world – providing even greater opportunity to Scottish exporters.”
On the data front
UK BRC shop price rose 0.1% yoy in November. Australia construction work done dropped -2.8% in Q3. Eurozone will release M3 money supply and German Gfk consumer sentiment. Later in the day, US will release trade balance, wholesale inventories, new hole sales and Q3 GDP revision.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3246; (P) 1.3288; (R1) 1.3340; More…
USD/CAD’s break of 1.3318 suggests that rise from 1.2781 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3385 key resistance. As upside momentum is rather unconvincing for now, we’d be cautious on topping around 1.3385 to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.3187 support will argue that rise from 1.2781 has completed. And intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3123) first. Nevertheless, strong break of 1.3385 will confirm medium term up trend resumption.
In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.
Economic Indicators Update
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Nov | 0.10% | -0.20% | ||
| 0:30 | AUD | Construction Work Done Q3 | -2.80% | 1.00% | 1.60% | 1.80% |
| 9:00 | EUR | Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Oct | 3.50% | 3.50% | ||
| 12:00 | EUR | German GfK Consumer Confidence Dec | 10.6 | 10.6 | ||
| 13:30 | USD | Trade Balance (USD) Oct | -76.7B | -76.0B | ||
| 13:30 | USD | Wholesale Inventories M/M OCt P | 0.50% | 0.40% | ||
| 13:30 | USD | GDP Annualized Q/Q Q3 S | 3.60% | 3.50% | ||
| 13:30 | USD | GDP Price Index Q3 S | 1.70% | 1.70% | ||
| 15:00 | USD | New Home Sales Oct | 583K | 553K | ||
| 15:00 | USD | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Nov | 16 | 15 | ||
| 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 4.9M |
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