EUR/USD has posted gains in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1347, up 0.25% on the day. On the release front, German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs both missed their estimates, with both indicators posting readings of 51.8 points. In the U.S, today’s key event is ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to tick lower to 57.7 points. On Tuesday, the eurozone releases PPI, which is expected to remain pegged at 0.5%.
German indicators have been pointing lower, and this worrying trend continued on Monday. Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.8 in November, down from 52.2 points in October. This marked a fourth straight downturn and was the lowest reading since April 2016. The global trade war has taken a bite out of German exports and a slowdown in the eurozone economy has dampened manufacturing growth in Germany. On Friday, German retail sales fell by 0.3%, its first decline since July. Consumers are holding tighter to the purse strings, which is hurting economic growth. Unsurprisingly, consumer confidence softened in November – the reading of 10.4 points was its lowest level since May 2017.
The G-20 summit ended on the weekend, and there was an audible sigh of relief from the markets after a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump suspended his threat to raise tariffs on Chinese products on January 1 from 10 percent to 25 percent. The sides agreed to continues talks for another 90 days, and the U.S. tariffs will take effect if no agreement is reached. The ‘cease fire’ was welcome news for investors, and the increase in risk appetite on Monday has led to broad losses for the U.S. dollar. Still, the U.S. and China remain far apart on a deal, and the greenback will likely reverse directions unless the parties make substantial progress in the trade dispute, which has shaken the markets and threatens to derail global growth.
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