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Quiet Start To Busy, Shortened Trading Week

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Fundamental analysis of Forex market

Notes/Observations

  • Shortened trading week due to Easter holiday but plethora of key data before then (Tues: German ZEW Survey, China Q1 GDP; Thurs: Major European PMI data, US retail sales data)
  • US corporate earnings season picking up through the week

Asia:

  • US said to compromise on China state industrial subsidies to reach trade deal amid resistance from China. US may not make specific demands of China regarding the issue of subsidies for industrial companies.
  • China PBoC Deputy Gov Chen Yulu reiterated China to further expand the opening up of its financial sector, urged the IMF to move forward with its quota and governance reforms

Europe:

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  • ECB’s Draghi: the key message of the IMF meeting was that there would be a significant growth slowdown this year. Global recovery in 2020 was subject to significant risk. Had concerns about central bank independence including the most important jurisdiction in the world
  • SNB’s Jordan reiterated stance of seeing no reason to change our monetary policy; still willing to intervene if needed
  • UK Cabinet Office Minister Lidington (de facto Dep PM) reiterated that would like Govt and Labour to agree on binding mechanism for way ahead; customs union compromises was still possible; Govt remained against second referendum
  • S&P affirmed Germany sovereign rating at AAA; outlook Stable

Americas:

  • IMF statement: global expansion continues but at a slower pace than was anticipated in Oct 2018; risks remain tilted to the downside
  • President Trump: If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points, and GDP would have been well over 4% instead of 3%…with almost no inflation. Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!
  • Treasury Sec Mnuchin: imbalances must be addressed across Europe; US wanted to address trade imbalances
  • Treasury Sec Mnuchin: expressed hope that both sides in US-China trade talks were re close to the final round of negotiations. Talks to be a very detailed agreement and would go way beyond bilateral investment treaty discussions. To have two more phone calls with Chinese Vice Premier Liu during week of Apr 15th

Energy:

  • Russia Fin Min Siluanov: OPEC+ faced a dilemma with production cuts because of rising US production. Believed that oil prices could drop below $40/bbl for up to a year if OPEC+ partners stopped curtailing their output in any effort to fight for market share

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

  • Indices [Stoxx600 +0.02% at 387.58, FTSE -0.05% at 7,433.25, DAX -0.05% at 11,994.40, CAC-40 +0.03% at 5,504.22, IBEX-35 +0.21% at 9,488.47, FTSE MIB +0.44% at 21,955.50, SMI +0.25% at 9,508.50, S&P 500 Futures -0.02%]
  • Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade little changed following a mixed session in Asia and flat futures in the US. On the corporate front shares of Bauer trades higher after a sharp rise in profits and strong guidance; Robert Walters also trades higher on a rise in net fee income. XP Power and Motif Bio are among the names trading lower on earnings. In other news IWG trades almost 20% higher following the divestiture of its Japanese operations; Ambu rises on reports the FDA updated on an investigation to evaluate the percentage of clinically used duodenoscopes, while PureTech gains on FDA clearance of Plenity. Elsewhere shares of Inficon, Pfeiffer Vacuum, Compass Group and Nokia are among the notable names declining after analyst downgrades. Looking ahead we will see a continuation of banking earnings with Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and M&T Bank all set to report.

Equities

  • Consumer discretionary: Publicis [PUB.FR] +4.5% (earnings; acquisition), IWG [IWG.UK] +16% (divestment), Vivendi Universal [VIV.FR] +1% (earnings)
  • Industrials: Daimler [DAI.DE] -1% (report on probe), Bauer [B5A.DER] +2% (earnings), Volkswagen [VOW3.DE] -0.5% (exec comments), Electricite de France [EDF.FR] +2% (France President Macron to support EDF nuclear operation re-nationalization), XP Power [XPP.UK] -1% (trading update)
  • Materials: Nyrstar [NYR.BE] -51% (restructuring), Petra Diamonds [PDL.UK] -0.5% (trading update)

Speakers

  • UK Foreign Min Hunt: Talks with Labour party have been more constructive than people think
  • Czech Central Bank Lending Survey: Demand for loans in all segments declined in quarter
  • Size of South Korea’s extra budget to be decided during week of Apr 22nd
  • China Commerce Ministry said to review anti-dumping measures on US DDGS (distillers dried grains with solubles)

Currencies/Fixed Income

  • FX markets were quite subdued as the trading week began . currencies are calm on Monday as Easter recess approaches. The price action to experience a shortened trading week due to Easter holiday but plethora of key data before then to help percolate activity. (Tues: German ZEW Survey, China Q1 GDP; Thurs: Major European PMI data, US retail sales data)
  • EUR/USD steady at 1.1310 with GBP/USD hovering around the 1.31 handle.

Economic Data

  • (SE) Sweden Mar PES Unemployment Rate: 3.6% v 3.7% prior
  • (PE) Peru Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 7.6% prior
  • (PE) Peru Feb Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.6% prior
  • (DK) Denmark Mar PPI M/M: -1.3% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.0 v 3.0% prior
  • (FI) Finland Mar CPI M/M: 0.1 v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.3% prior
  • (FI) Finland Feb Current Account Balance: €0.0B (nil) v €0.5B prior
  • (FI) Finland Feb Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 1.5 v 0.5% prelim
  • (NO) Norway Mar Trade Balance (NOK): 13.9B v 15.2B prior
  • (CH) Swiss Mar Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.3%e
  • (IN) India Mar Wholesale Prices (WPI) Y/Y: 3.2%e
  • (TR) Turkey Jan Unemployment Rate: 14.7% v 14.6%e
  • (CH) Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 576.7B v 576.3B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 484.7B v 485.5B prior
  • (PL) Poland Mar Final CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7% prelim
  • (IT) Italy Feb General Government Debt: €2.364T (record high) v €2.327T prior

Fixed Income Issuance

  • (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (Ardal) sold total €219M in 2028 and 2031 bonds

Looking Ahead

  • (NG) Nigeria Mar CPI Y/Y: 11.2%e v 11.3% prior
  • (TR) Turkey Mar Central Gov’t Budget Balance (TRY): no est v -16.8B prior
  • 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills
  • 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays)
  • 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds
  • 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
  • 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)
  • 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: No est v 1.4% prior
  • 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
  • 07:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: -0.3%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 0.8% prior
  • 08:00 (UK) Baltic Bulk Index
  • 08:30 (US) Apr Empire Manufacturing: 8.0e v 3.7 prior
  • 08:30 (US) Fed’s Evans (dove, voter)
  • 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined €3.8-5.0B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
  • 09:00 (CA) Canada Mar Existing Home Sales M/M: +2.0%e v -9.1% prior
  • 09:00 (BE) Belgium Feb Trade Balance: No est v -€1.3B prior
  • 09:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.15B in APF Gilt purchase operation (3-7 years)
  • 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BoC) Q1 Overall Business Outlook Survey: No est v 2.2 prior; Business Outlook Future Sales: No est v -1 prior
  • 11:30 (IL) Israel Mar CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.2% prior
  • 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
  • 12:00 (UK) BOE’s Haskel
  • 12:30 (FR) ECB’s Villeroy (France)
  • 13:00 (US) Fed’s Evans (dove, voter)
  • 16:00 (US) Feb Net Long-term TIC Flows: No est v -$7.2B prior; Total Net TIC Flows: No est v -$143.7B prior

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