The US dollar index (December futures) sharpened its pullback from a one-month high of 94.28 on Tuesday, landing near the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) in the four-hour chart.
The 50% Fibonacci of the 94.77 – 92.43 downleg and the 50-period EMA are also strongly supporting the market in the same neighborhood around 93.60, providing an opportunity for a rebound and preventing an outlook downgrade at the same time. That said, the negative momentum in the MACD and the weakening RSI is a discouraging combination, which continues to favor the bears.
A decisive close beneath the 50% Fibonacci of 93.60 could add more fuel to the ongoing decline, which may find some footing somewhere between the 200-period EMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci of 93.32. Slightly lower, the ascending trendline stretched from the 92.43 low could trigger another bearish wave if forcefully violated.
Should selling pressure fade immediately, the index may shift upwards to test the 61.8% Fibonacci of 93.87 before heading for the 78.6% Fibonacci and the one-month high of 94.28.
Summarizing, the US dollar index continues to send discouraging technical signals, though if the bulls wanted to regain control there is currently enough support under the price to stage an upside reversal.
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