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EUR/USD Starts Recovery, But Faces Key Hurdle

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Technical analysis of Forex market

Key Highlights

  • EUR/USD found support near 1.1186 and started a decent recovery.
  • It broke a major bearish trend line at 1.1200 on the 4-hours chart.
  • GBP/USD is facing an increase in selling below 1.3400.
  • Crude oil price declined over $10.00 and traded below $70.00.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro found support near 1.1180 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD formed a base and recently started a recovery wave above the 1.1220 resistance zone.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair was able to recover above the 1.1280 resistance zone. Besides, it surpassed a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1200.

It opened the doors for more gains above 1.1300, but the pair is still well below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

The pair traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1608 swing high to 1.1186 low. On the upside, the pair is facing hurdles near 1.1350. The next major resistance is near 1.1400.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1608 swing high to 1.1186 low is also near the 1.1400 zone along with the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

A close above the 1.1400 level could open the doors for a larger increase. If not, EUR/USD could start a fresh decline below the 1.1280 support. The next major support is near 1.1250, below which the pair could even revisit 1.1200.

Besides, GBP/USD must settle above the 1.3400 resistance zone to start a steady recovery. On the other hand, crude oil price saw a major decline below the $75.00 and $70.00 support levels.

Economic Releases

  • Euro Zone Consumer Confidence for Nov 2021 – Forecast -6.8, versus -6.8 previous.
  • German Consumer Price Index for Nov 2021 (YoY) (Prelim) – Forecast +5.0%, versus +4.5% previous.
  • German Consumer Price Index for Nov 2021 (MoM) (Prelim) – Forecast -0.5%, versus +0.5% previous.
  • US Pending Home Sales for Oct 2021 (MoM) – Forecast +1.0%, versus -2.3% previous.