New BOC Governor to Carry On Legacy, Keeping Rate and QE Intact
The upcoming BOC meeting (June 3) will be the first one headed by incoming Governor Tiff Macklem. We expect him to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.25%. The unconventional monetary policy, i.e.: QE, will also remain the same. Given...
RBA to Send More Upbeat Economic Assessment in June
We expect RBA to leave its monetary policy measures unchanged in June. Governor Philip Lowe appeared cautiously optimistic about domestic economic outlook. We expect the central bank will deliver a more upbeat economic outlook while pledge to leave the policy...
FOMC Minutes Sent Dovish Message about Recovery, Preparing to Adjust QE and Forward Guidance
The FOMC minutes for the April meeting revealed that the members were very much concerned about the job market and inflation outlook as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. While leaving the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, the members...
RBNZ to Maintain Dovish Tone in May, Preparing for QE Expansion
We expect RBNZ to leave its OCR at 0.25% at the May meeting. However, given the prospect of very gradual economic recovery, policymakers would maintain a dovish tone and suggest that further stimulus measures are likely. QE expansion is a...
RBA Forecasts Double-Digit Contraction and Unemployment in First Half of the Year
As revealed in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SMP), RBA sharply cut economic forecasts for this year. GDP is projected to record double-digit contraction in the first half of the year before recovery in 2021. The unemployment rate could...
BOE to Keep Stimulus Measures Unchanged in May. Could Announce QE Extension in Coming Two Months
We expect BOE to leave both the policy rate and other liquidity expansion measures unchanged this week. Despite government’s plan to ease lockdown measures amidst stabilization of coronavirus cases, the process will be gradual. Meanwhile, social distancing measures will remain...
RBA to Stay on Hold in May. Economic Forecasts to be Downgraded
RBA is widely expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.25% on the May 5 meeting. It will also keep other stimulus measures, including targeting 3-year bond yield, term funding facility operation and QE, announced in March the same....
Fed Markedly Downgraded Economic Assessments on Sharp Decline in Activities and Surge in Unemployment
While maintaining all monetary policy measures unchanged in April, FOMC sent a more negative message about the economy. The members noted the sharp deterioration in economic activities and a jump in unemployment, cautioning that the negative impacts could prolong in...
ECB to Send a Dovish Tone and Pledge to Take Further Actions if Needed. Rate Cut Appears Less Relevant than QE
We expect ECB to keep its powder dry at this week’s meeting, after launching several stimulus measures last month. The central bank should maintain a dovish tone, indicating disappointing economic data and pledging the take further actions if needed. As...
BOJ’s QE Expansion Likely Ineffective Despite Pledge of Unlimited Purchases
BOJ announced to expand QE today. It will increase support on corporate financing and remove the annual purchase limit for JGBs, from 80 trillion yen previously. Meanwhile, the central bank left the overnight rate unchanged at -0.1%, and the yield...
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