NZD Jumped although RBNZ Postponed Timing of Rate Hike (At Least Not Expecting a Cut)
Kiwi rallied although RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1.75% as anticipated. The central bank did turn slightly more dovish than in November but the market had expected more. The central bank indicated that “the tailwinds to growth have eased”...
RBNZ Preview – Turning More Dovish while Affirming Next Move Can be Up or Down
We expect RBNZ, at next week’s meeting, to leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75% and downgrade its economic growth forecasts. We believe the tone would tilted to the dovish side as both global and domestic environment deteriorated since November. Increased...
BOE Downgrades Growth and Inflation Forecasts, Expects Fewer Tightening Despite Retaining Forward Guidance
BOE joined other central banks in downgrading the economic growth outlook. In addition to heightened risks of global growth slowdown, ongoing Brexit uncertainty is the key concern for the members. The members voted unanimously to keep the Bank rate at...
RBA Review – Policy Rate to Stay Low for Some Time as Risks to Growth and Inflation Skewed to Downside
As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the 27th consecutive meeting. Yet, it has turned less optimistic about Australia’s economic outlook while noting downside risks to global growth. As suggested in the accompanying statement, the...
BOE Preview – Downgrade on Economic Outlook as Brexit Remains Uncertain
Again, we expect BOE to vote unanimously to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75%, as well as to leave the asset purchase program at 435B pound, at the February meeting. While the focus of the meeting remains on Brexit...
FOMC Review – Fed Calls for Patience on Further Rate Hike
The Fed addressed the issues we are concerned with, in quite a dovish tone, at the January meeting. As widely anticipated, the Fed funds rate stayed unchanged at 2.25-2.5%. The members removed the forward guidance of gradual interest rate increases....
FOMC Preview – How Dovish is the Fed?
There are several issues we are expecting from the FOMC meeting later this week. While it is widely anticipated that the Fed would leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.25-2.5%, the potential changes in the accompanying and the message conveyed...
ECB Turns Dovish amid Heightened Global Uncertainties
The ECB meeting evolved as we had expected: more dovish, downgraded assessment on economy, leaving unchanged the forward guidance on interest rates. the central bank has acknowledged that the uncertainties in the global economy have intensified and can persist for...
BOJ Cut CPI Forecasts, But Is it Realistic to Expect Tax Hike will Help Inflation?
As widely anticipated, BOJ voted 7-2 to leave left the policy rate unchanged at -0.1% in January. All other policies also remained intact: purchases of JGBs at a pace of 80 trillion yen/ year and maintenance of 10-year JGB yield...
ECB Preview – ECB to Turn More Dovish as Economic Data Surprise to Downside
We expect ECB to turn more dovish at the meeting later this week, as economic data have pointed to further weakness. There are several issues worth watching for the meeting: rhetoric on economic outlook, instruments to alleviate tightening of credit...
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