Hawkish Carney Signals Overheating Economy Could Accelerate BOE Rate Hikes
As widely anticipated, BOE voted unanimously to keep all monetary policies unchanged in November. The Bank rate stays unchanged at 0.75%. Meanwhile, purchases of gilts and corporate bonds remain at 435B pound and 10B pound, respectively. The central bank sent...
ECB Reveals No Details about Reinvestment. December in Focus
ECB left it policy rates and the asset purchase program unchanged. The members remained confident over the economic outlook but acknowledges some risks, including protectionism and financial market volatility, that could derail the recovery path. As we had anticipated, ECB...
BOC Review – Hiking Policy Rate to 1.75% with Hawkish Bias
The market was thrilled by BOC’s hawkish comments accompanying the widely-anticipated +25 bps rate hike. With the uncertainty of future trade relationship with the US reduced and economic growth on track, the members judged that it is prudent to move...
ECB Likely More Cautious amid Soft Core Inflation and Italy. Reinvestment Details to be Revealed in December
We expect ECB to emphasize downside risk to growth in this week’s meeting on October 25. That woudl be a slight shift from the more hawkish stance at the last meeting six weeks ago. With the path of QE announced...
BOC Preview – Rate Hike Fully Priced but Future Decision Still Data- Dependent
The market has fully priced in that BOC would raise its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.75% this week. With trade uncertainty eased and the employment market staying strong, the focus is on whether policymakers would consider accelerating the...
Fed’s September Minutes Explained the Rationale of Removing Forward Guidance, Showed More Concerns about USD Strength
The FOMC minutes for the September meeting contained little news regarding the rationale of the 25 bps rate hike last month, as well as the future path of monetary policy normalization. Yet, there are some points worth nothing. First, the...
RBA Minutes – Content with Weak AUD but More Concerned about Credit Conditions
The RBA minutes for the October meeting reinforced its cautious stance on the monetary policy. With the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for 24 consecutive months, the members have seen no urgency to make adjustment. While affirming the next move...
FOMC Hiked Rate and Removed “Accommodative” Policy Reference
FOMC raised the Fed funds rate, by +25 bps, to 2-2.25% in September. While the accompanying statement was largely dubbed from the previous meeting, the market has viewed the removal of the “accommodative” policy language has slightly dovish. This is...
BOE Preview- Upbeat about Recent Economic Developments, but Cautious over Brexit
Following the August rate hike, BOE would likely keeps its powder dry at least until the Brexit Withdrawal deal is finalized. Macroeconomic indicators released since the last meeting contain both upside and downside surprises. Yet, the overall developments should keep...
ECB to Affirm QE Reduction from October and Downgrade Inflation Forecasts
While it has been widely anticipated that this week’s ECB meeting would be non-eventful, it is closely watched. We expect the central bank to reaffirm that the monthly asset purchases would be halved in size (from 30B euro to 15B...