The focus in the forex market shifts just before weekly close. Selloff in Euro has clearly intensified, in particular with EUR/USD finally breaking through 1.5 support level. The development also drags down Australian Dollar as both are now trading as the weakest ones. That could partly be attributed to Fed dove Evan’s hawkish turn that lifted the Dollar. On the other hand, Yen is also capitalizing on the shift in focuses, with a little from stronger than expected GDP too. Meanwhile, Sterling and New Zealand Dollar, while staying weak, are relatively resilient as they have suffered enough selling earlier this week already. The upcoming economic calendar features UK GDP and productions, Canada employment and US CPI. More volatility is like guaranteed.
Technically, EUR/USD’s strong break of 1.1507 key support finally marks the end of the consolidation patter that started back in May. The down trend from February high at 1.2555 has resumed. Based on current momentum, it’s heading to 1.1186 long term fibonacci level. EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF are on course for 124.61 and 1.1366 low respectively, as expected. The point of interest right now, is whether AUD/USD will take out 0.7309 to resume the medium term down trend too.
In other markets, US equities closed mixed overnight, with DOW down -0.29%, S&P 500 down -0.14% but NASDAQ up 0.04%. 10 year yield closed lower by -0.036 at 2.935. Asian markets are generally in red. At the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.68%, China Shanghai SSE is down -0.33%, Hong Kong HSI is down -0.57%, Singapore Strait Times is down -1.25%. WTI crude oil is back below 67 but no accelerated selloff yet. For now, Gold is also hovering in tight range around 1210.
Known dove Chicago Fed Evans turns hawkish, suggesting rates could go restrictive
The known dove Chicago Fed President Charles Evans started to turn hawkish in his comments to reports yesterday. Evans said the the economy is “extremely strong” and it’s “really a very good period of time” for both the economy and monetary policy setting. And Fed funds rate might eventually enter into “somewhat restrictive” area as economy strengthens while inflation stays above target.
He also noted that “inflation has moved up to 2 percent essentially”. There is “good reason to expect we will stay in that area.” Also, if inflation continues to be “on the order of 2, 2.2”, that “suggests only a modest amount of restrictiveness above our neutral rate might be called for in 2020.” And, “it would not surprise me at all if we make a judgment to move to a somewhat restrictive setting.” He cited it could be roughly 0.5% above his neutral rate of 2.75%.
Evans also downplayed the impact of Trump’s trade policy. He said “you size up the tariffs, the increases in input costs … and you find that while it sounds like a big number … the actual effect on industry output and GDP is still measured in a few tenths”of a percentage point. And, “the magnitude still seems to be relatively small, uncertain, against a context where the economy is very strong and we have just added quite a lot of fiscal stimulus.”
Yen rises as Japan’s consumption-led GDP growth beat expectation
The Japanese Yen appears to be lifted by stronger than expected GDP data today. Japan economy grew 0.5% qoq, 1.9% annualized in Q2. That’s way stronger than expectation of 0.3% qoq, 1.4% annu