Australian Dwelling Approvals: Down Sharply, Extending Second Leg Lower

Fundamental analysis of Forex market

November –9.1%mth, –32.8%yr.

Dwelling approvals moved sharply lower in November, with the pace of decline a downside surprise.

Approvals slumped by 9.1% in the month, following a fall of 1.4% in October.

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Approvals are now 32.8% below the level of this time last year. However, this figure overstates current weakness due to a stepping off issue (last November approvals jumped 18% only to then fall back 23% the next month – yes this is a volatile series).

In trend terms in November, approvals fell by 2.3% in the month to be 18.3% below a year ago.

Private apartments not surprisingly led the way lower, down 17.9% in November.

Private house approvals fell also, down 2.6%, reversing a 2.4% rise in October.

By state, it was notable that declines in the month were led by the once strong Victoria, -14.6%, as well as NSW, -9.3%. Falls were evident in the other mainland states, WA, -7.3%; SA, -4.6%; and Qld, -4.3%.