AUDJPY touched a 6-month low of 73.90 last week, with price action taking place below both the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Additionally, the price structure consists of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that the broader downtrend remains intact – even if oscillators like the RSI suggest that the latest rebound may continue for now.
Another wave of selling could find initial support around 73.90, where a downside break may open the door for 72.40, this being the 2016 low.
On the flipside, a recovery in the pair may meet resistance near the June 10 high of 76.00, with a move above that barrier turning the focus to the 50-day SMA at 76.56. Even higher, the 77.50 zone would come into view.
In brief, the bigger picture is firmly negative, though the rising RSI suggests that the current correction may continue in the very short term.
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