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US Data Dump

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Fundamental analysis of Forex market

The US has front loaded all the month end data to today because of the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday and the half day session for equities on Friday.  The most important data released today was US GDP (Preliminary) for Q2, Chicago PMI for November, Pending Home Sales (MoM) for October and the Core PCE Price Index (YoY), which is one of the Fed’s favorite measures of inflation.

GDP for Q3 (QoQ) was released at  2.1% vs 1.9% expected, however this is the second look at the data, and it is looking at Q3.  We are half way through Q4, therefore price didn’t move a great deal on the release.  Immediately after the release, USD/JPY spiked 10 pips from 109.15 to 109.25, while the S&P 500 was little changed.

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Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com

Chicago PMI was released an hour and fifteen minutes later.  The number shows the first solid look at manufacturing data for the month of November.  The reading of 43.2 for October was the lowest reading since December 2015.   This month’s reading was 46.3 vs 47 expected.  Although a touch lower than expected, again prices were close to unchanged upon its release.

Fifteen minutes after that, the headline PCE Price Index (MoM) was 0.2% vs 0.2% expected.  However, the Core PCE Price Index (YoY) was 1.6% vs 1.7% expected.  The kicker in today’s data was the Pending Home Sales (MoM) for October.  +0.2% was expected.  The headline number was -1.7%!  Upon the release, the US Dollar index fell from 98.44 down to 98.36.

Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com

Watch to see if the US Dollar selling continues.  Notice the failure so far in DXY to take out recent highs and the 50% retracement from the October 1st highs to the October 18th lows.  If price trades back to 98.20, it will fill the overnight gap and be extremely bearish heading into the holiday.  However, if price can hold on to it’s gains and move higher, the DXY will be in good shape heading in to shortened trading day on Friday and into the weekend.

Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com

Over the next few hours, things should begin to slow down as people begin leaving early for the US Thanksgiving holiday.  There may be some squaring up on the books as the US heads into a (sort of) long holiday weekend.