EURUSD appears to be restricted by the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) after finding some support from the mid-Bollinger band around the 1.0838 level, that being the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from the 13-month high of 1.1496 to the multi-year low of 1.0635. The undecided pair is currently confined within a near-term range between 1.0925 and 1.0768.
This is also reflected in the flat 200-period SMA and the short-term oscillators, which display a neutral picture of vanished directional momentum. The MACD and the RSI are residing around their neutral marks, while the stochastic lines show chances of improvement.
If buying interest picks up, initial constrictions could come from the 100-period SMA at 1.0880 until the 1.0925 latest high – being the top of the near-term range – consisting of the 50-period SMA at 1.0897 and the upper Bollinger band. Overcoming these limitations, the price could push for the 38.2% Fibo of 1.0965, which if overrun, could see the 200-period SMA at 1.1010 and the nearby swing high of 1.1038 challenge further advances. If the bulls persist, the 50.0% Fibo of 1.1066 could attempt to prevent the 1.1146 peak from being reached.
Otherwise, if sellers dip below the 23.6% Fibo of 1.0838, the bottom of the range at 1.0768 could initially test sellers’ efforts prior to the swing lows of 1.0745 and 1.0717. Dropping past these, the 1.0666 obstacle of March 23 could deter the pair from revisiting the 35-month low of 1.0635.
Overall, the short- and medium-term outlook is neutral, bound between 1.1496 and 1.0635. That said, in the near-term picture, a break either above 1.0925 or below 1.0768 could expose the next move.
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