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Dollar Recovery Ends Quickly

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Fundamental analysis of Forex market

Dollar under pressure after brief respite

US yields are quickly reversing lower after spiking higher after Mr Powell’s address on Thursday. The reality that inflation is but a distant hope, and that interest rates in the US are going nowhere in a hurry, saw the rotation out of US dollars recommence with renewed vigour.

Across the G-10 space, both pro-cyclical and defensive currencies all recorded substantial gains. The dollar index fell 0.75% on Friday, and this morning it is eyeing daily support at 92.15, with its next target at 91.00. EUR/USD has risen to 1.1915, with a test of the recent highs at 1.1970 seemingly inevitable. GBP/USD broke through resistance at 1.3280 on Friday, on its way to 1.15% gain to 1.3345. The December 2019 high at 1.3215 looms as the next target.

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USD/CHF amongst the defensive currencies is particularly interesting. USD/CHF fell 0.50% to 0.9030 on Friday, just shy of the 2020 lows at 0.9015. A weekly close below 0.9000 on Friday opens up a yawning chasm on the longer-term charts. The next support is around 0.8000, the SNB capitulation lows. Before readers ask, still to this day, I have no idea what the real low was that day. Ask ten different participants, and you will get ten very different answers. Such are the perils of a fragmented currency market with no central transacting venue.

The pro-cyclical Australian and New Zealand dollars had strong rallies, breaking resistances at 0.7300 and 0.6700 respectively. USD/CNY is testing support at 6.8600, and USD/CNH at 6.8400. The story is much the same across Asia, with SGD, MYR, THB and PHP all moving higher today, following rallies on Friday.

Overall, the great US dollar rotation trade appears to be back with a vengeance. A United Kingdom holiday today will mute activity in currency markets this afternoon. Still, the overall picture is one of renewed vigour and momentum for the global recovery, and by default, the lower dollar trade. Assuming that stays on track, and with US real yields set to remain negative for a long time, this trade will be with us for many months into the future.