USD/TRY Outlook: Turkish Lira Falls To New Record Low

Technical analysis of Forex market

Bulls are consolidating under new marginally higher new record high (7.4542), following Thursday’s nearly 0.8% advance after data showed that inflation remains high (m/m 0.86% from 0.58% prior, y/y 11.77% from 11.76 prior).

Stubbornly high inflation, without any signs of easing soon, increases pressure on Turkey’s central bank to continue tightening the policy.

Geopolitical tensions that may trigger sanctions on Turkey, also weigh on lira, which weakens for the fifth straight session.

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Bulls eye targets at 7.4962 and 7.50 (Fibo 138.2% projection of recovery leg from 2020 low at 6.6716 / psychological) violation of which would spark an acceleration towards 7.6370 (Fibo 161.8% projection).

The pair is on track to end week with strong gains which signals bullish continuation after the double-Doji in previous two weeks.

Weekly studies also maintain strong bullish momentum, but overbought conditions may slow the rally..

Res: 7.4542, 7.5000, 7.6000, 7.6370
Sup: 7.4226, 7.4061, 7.3755, 7.3510