US Dollar Index Holds Near 32-month Trough; Strongly Negative

Technical analysis of Forex market

The US dollar index has been in a significant bearish tendency since March 3 and last week the price posted a fresh 32-month low of 90.42.

Looking at momentum oscillators on the daily chart though, they suggest an upside pullback on price. The stochastic oscillator created a bullish crossover within its %K and %D lines in the oversold territory, while the MACD is flattening beneath its trigger and zero lines.

Further declines may be on the cards if the index slips underneath the multi-month trough. The next support could come from the April 2018 low at 88.90 and 88.50 from March 2018.

On the flipside, if the bulls take control, price advances may stall initially near the inside swing low of 91.70. A potential upside violation of this level could drive the market until the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) currently at 92.75 and 92.97, respectively. In such a case, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward wave of 93.55 could raise the likelihood for more advances.

Summarizing, the US dollar index continues to receive selling interest in the short- and long-term timeframes. A jump above the 200-day SMA around 95.77 may shift the current outlook to neutral.