NZDUSD’s Uptrend Under Negative Pressure

Technical analysis of Forex market

NZDUSD has retreated from the recent 32½-month high of 0.7314 and is consolidating around the gradually rising 100-period simple moving average (SMA), which for the last week has curbed further deterioration under the 0.7152 trough. The steady upwards creeping 100- and 200-period SMAs are favouring advances and are trying to protect the positive picture.

However, the short-term oscillators and the slowed upward pace in the flattening 50-period SMA are promoting a pickup in negative price action. The MACD, below the zero mark is returning back under its red trigger line, while the decreasing RSI is maintaining its slide beneath its 50 threshold. Moreover, the stochastic oscillator is exhibiting a negative charge endorsing further price losses.

If sellers finally close underneath the 100-period SMA at 0.7178, they may encounter neighbouring tough support from the base section of 0.7138-0.7157, where the lower Bollinger band also resides. Successfully diving beneath, the bears could then meet the 200-period SMA at 0.7124, which may attempt to deny a deeper retracement towards the 0.7083 trough.

Alternatively, if buyers resurface and retake the reins, initial resistance may occur at the mid-Bollinger band at 0.7200 and the 50-period SMA, not too far above, at 0.7218. Should buyers’ efforts succeed, next upside constraints may develop around the upper Bollinger band at 0.7234 and the adjacent ceiling of the minor range at 0.7240. Conquering this border may then reassure investors that the improving picture could remain in place for a while longer with the pair aiming next for the 0.7305 high.

In conclusion, in the short-term timeframe NZDUSD retains a neutral-to-bullish bias above the 0.7138-0.7157 boundary and the 200-period SMA. A retraction under the 0.7000 mark may send strong negative gestures.