Dollar was in a pole position to end as the strongest major currency. But disappointing non-farm payroll report gave dollar bulls a reality check as the greenback ended mixed, after late selloff. Australian and New Zealand Dollar have indeed closed as the best performers, followed by Sterling. Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen were the weakest.
Could the resumed up trend in US stocks and treasury yield bring Dollar index higher? That’s a major question to answer in the coming weeks. Gold’s weakness might help the greenback. But Dollar index has to take out a key near term resistance level by itself first, before having some more sustainable rally. We’d argue that, in the risk-on environment, Sterling and Aussie are better bets.
S&P 500 resumed record run after brief pull back
Despite the slightly deeper than expected pull back, S&P 500 draw strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Near term bullishness was retained and it has indeed surged to close at new record high at 3719.81. Current medium term up trend should now continue to 61.8% projection of 2191.86 to 3588.11 form 3233.94 at 4096.82. The question is whether there would be upside acceleration through near term channel resistance. But in any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 3694.12 support holds.
10-year yield on track to 1.266 key resistance
10-year yield also rebounded strongly after drawing some strong support around both near term rising channel and 55 day EMA. The development keeps up trend from 0.504 intact for 1.266 key resistance. This level was last seen at the start of the pandemic in March 2020. Solid break of this level would be a vote of confidence on “back to normal”. We’ll see how it goes from there. But for now, TNX would maintain the up trend as long as 1.001 support holds.
Dollar index struggled to catch up, capped by 91.74 resistance
Dollar index followed stocks and yield higher last week but clearly lagged behind in terms of momentum. Rejection by 91.74 could drag DXY down towards 89.20 support. But, with resilience in US yields, we’re not expecting a break of this low. Thus, Dollar could turn mixed against other major currencies. On the other hand, firm break of 91.74 will argue that DXY is at least correcting the down trend form 102.99 to 89.20. Stronger rise should then be seen back to 38.2% retracement at 94.46. That would mark and more sustainable rally in Dollar, in broad-based way.
GBP/CHF and AUD/JPY to gain further from risk-on sentiments
It’s now unsure if Dollar could ride on surging US stocks and yields. But general risk-on sentiment should continue to support Sterling and Aussie. In particular, buying could intensify if GBP/USD breaks 1.3758 high while AUD/USD breaks 0.7819 (which is relatively farther away for now).
GBP/CHF’s medium term rise from 1.1102 resumed by breaking through 1.2259 resistance decisively. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.2232 support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1102 to 1.2259 from 1.1683 at 1.2398. Firm break there would likely bring upside acceleration to 100% projection at 1.2840.
It’s still a bit early to say, but the strong break of 55 week EMA