AUDUSD In A Tight Range Ahead Of The RBA Rate Decision

Fundamental analysis of Forex market

Crude oil declined after the latest OPEC+ meeting ended without a deal. This happened after Saudi Arabia and Russia asked participating members to increase production in the next few months. The goal was to ease rising oil prices and extend the existing deal. This proposal found resistance by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which sees its own production quota as being unfair. As a result, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and UAE has become fragile. Meanwhile, other OPEC+ members are comfortable increasing oil production by about 400k barrels per day from August to December. They are also prepared to extend the deal beyond April 2022.

The Australian dollar rose slightly as traders reflected on the latest positive economic data. According to the Australian Statistics Bureau, the country’s retail sales rose from 0.1% in April to 0.4% in May. This increase was better than the expected 0.1%. Further data showed that the country’s building approvals declined by 7.1% month-on-month in May while job advertisements increased by 3.0%. Meanwhile, the country’s services PMI declined to 56.8. These numbers came a day before the latest RBA interest rate decision.

Market activity will be relatively muted today as the US celebrates Independence Day. As a result, while the US markets will be closed, the futures market will remain open. Traders will focus on the latest services PMI data to be published by Markit. Analysts expect the data to show that the German services PMI increased to 60.4 while the Eurozone PMI rose to 58.0. Traders will also be reflecting on the Friday’s employment data that showed that the US economy added more than 850,000 jobs as the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%.


The EURUSD pair was little changed in early trading as traders reflected on the latest US NFP data. It is trading at 1.1852, which was slightly above last week’s low of 1.1805. The pair is slightly below the 25-day moving average on the four-hour chart while the MACD is below the neutral line. It is also slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, the pair will likely remain at this range today.


The AUDUSD pair rose to 0.7515 after the latest Australian PMI data. The pair has moved above the 25-day and 15-day moving averages while the signal line of the MACD has made a bullish crossover. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the oversold level. It is also above the important support at 0.7476 level. Therefore, the pair may keep rising as bulls target the next key level at 0.7550.


The USDJPY pair declined to 111.10 after the latest US non-farm payrolls data. On the four-hour chart, the pair has moved below the short and longer-term moving averages. It is also between the ascending channel while the signal and histogram of the MACD are above the neutral level. Therefore, the pair may keep falling as bears target the lower side of the channel at 110.50.