Workers labor in a factory of bathing suits in Jinjiang in southeast China’s Fujian province Tuesday, Sept. 28, 2021.
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BEIJING — Ahead of China’s quarterly growth numbers due out on Monday, most major investment banks have trimmed their economic predictions for the year and warned that abrupt power cuts and a property market slump may drag down growth.
CNBC tracked estimates for China’s full-year GDP from 13 major banks, 10 of which have cut their forecasts since August. The median prediction is growth of 8.2% this year, following the latest cuts. That’s down 0.3 percentage points from the prior median forecast.
Of the firms CNBC tracked, Japanese investment bank Nomura has the lowest full-year forecast for China at 7.7%. Southeast Asia’s largest bank, DBS, has the highest at 8.8%.
Here are banks’ forecasts for the full year:
Banks that cut China’s GDP forecast
- ANZ: Cut to 8.3%, from 8.8%
- Morgan Stanley: Cut to 7.9%, from 8.2%
- Bank of America: Cut to 8%, from 8.3%
- Citi: Cut to 8.2%, from 8.7%
- Deutsche Bank: Cut to 8.4%, from 8.9%
- Goldman Sachs: Cut to 7.8%, from 8.2%
- HSBC: Cut to 8.3%, from 8.5%
- Nomura: Cut to 7.7%, from 8.2%
- Standard Chartered: Cut to 8.2%, from 8.8%
- JPMorgan: Cut to 8.3% from 8.7%
Banks that didn’t change China forecast
- Credit Suisse: 8.2%.
- DBS: 8.8%.
- UBS: 8.2%.
China’s economic landscape
Negative factors for growth have mounted this year, ranging from slower-than-expected consumer spending to disruptive floods. Adding to uncertainty is Beijing’s wide-ranging regulatory crackdown, including on indebted real estate developers and allegedly monopolistic behavior by internet tech giants.
Strong export growth remains a bright spot. China’s economic expansion is still on pace to exceed the IMF’s global growth prediction of 5.9%.
Analysts have said China is taking the opportunity this year to make painful but necessary adjustments to the economy. The official GDP target of more than 6% this year is far lower than what investment banks are betting.
— CNBC’s Gabrielle See contributed to this report.