EUR/USD: Improving Techs Point to Further Short-Squeeze, But Fundamentals Still Rule

Technical analysis of Forex market

The Euro is standing at the back foot on Friday, following 1.2% advance on Thursday, but dips were so far limited, adding to positive signal from Thursday’s bullish engulfing pattern.

Fresh bullish momentum on daily chart and formation of 5/10DMA bull-cross, underpin the action for potential stronger short squeeze.

Bulls need repeated close above 1.30532/45 (20DMA/Fibo 23.6% of 1.1184/1.0349) to confirm bullish stance and keep in play hopes for stronger correction. Extended recovery will need an extension through 1.0641/43 (May 5 lower top / daily Kijun-sen) and 1.0668 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1184/1.0349) to generate initial reversal signal.

Positive scenario is supported by formation of bullish engulfing pattern on weekly chart and RSI/stochastic indicators emerging from oversold territory.

Also, formation of long-legged Doji on monthly chart suggests that larger downtrend might be running out of steam.

However, caution is required as geopolitical and economic news remain in play as key risk sentiment drivers and may influence the performance of the pair at any time.

Res: 1.0607; 1.0641; 1.0668; 1.0700.
Sup: 1.0531; 1.0496; 1.0459; 1.0388.