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Risk Appetite Still Finding Legs

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Fundamental analysis of Forex market

Notes/Observations

  • Awaiting US-China to organize a trade-deal signing ceremony
  • Europe returns from extended Christmas holiday

Asia:

  • Japan Nov Jobless Rate matched a 27-year low ( 2.2% v 2.4%e)
  • Japan Dec Tokyo CPI Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e; CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.7%e
  • Japan Nov Retail Sales M/M: 4.5% v 5.0%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -1.7%e
  • Japan Nov Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: -8.1% v -8.1%e
  • BOJ Summary of Opinions reiterated view must look at side-effects of policy while maintaining current monetary easing
  • China Nov Industrial Profits Y/Y: +5.4% v -9.9% prior (first rise since July, fastest increase in 8 months)
  • China govt was said to be carefully trying to ensure that trade deal with the US would be in line with global trade rules and did not hurt relations with other trading partners (including Russia, EU and Brazil). China believed that the deal should adhere to multilateralism and be based on market rules. China said to seek seeking to avoid having the details of the phase one agreement with the US harm the interests of non-US suppliers and market.

Americas:

  • Argentina Central Bank cuts benchmark interest rate by 300bps to 55%

Energy:

  • Weekly API Oil Inventories : -7.9M v +4.7M prior

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 % at #, FTSE +0.23% at , DAX +0.23% at 13,331.92, CAC-40 +0.27% at 6,045.84, IBEX-35 +0.14% at 9,675.00, FTSE MIB -0.57% at 23,762.05, SMI -0.05% at 10,719.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.17%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes:

European indices in the green following indices in Asia mostly higher and higher US futures.

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Equities

  • Energy: Saipem [SPM.IT] +3% (awarded orders)
  • Healthcare: Qiagen [QIA.DE] -19% (decides against sale)

Speakers

  • ECB Economic Bulletin stated that it saw signs of stabilization in global economy beginning to emerge towards the end of the year.
  • EU Commission President Von Der Leyen: Brexit transition might not be possible by end of 2020
  • Russia Energy Min Novak: OPEC+ deal was not indefinite; oil demand might increase in summer. Might need to increase production at some point (**Note: Current OPEC+ production cut agreement ends in march 2020)
  • Japan PM Abe: Moderate domestic recovery was continuing; sought to maintain the momentum. Hoped to improve relations with South Korea; urged President Moon to initiate efforts to improve ties between the two countries
  • China PBoC reiterated stance to prevent and defuse financial risks; to properly deal with bond defaults. To strengthen punishment for malicious acts for missed payments on debts

Currencies/ Fixed Income

  • USD was softer and testing 1-week lows against the major European pairs. Dealers cited that a weaker safe-haven environment as risk appetite improved on easing US-China trade tensions
  • EUR/USD at 1.1140 with GBP/USD at 1.3070 just ahead of mid-session.
  • USD/JPY still having difficulty moving above the 109.70 level. Pair at 109.50 just ahead of the US morning.

Economic Data

  • (FI) Finland Dec Consumer Confidence: -4.2 v -5.0 prior; Business Confidence: -6 v -7 prior
  • (VN) Vietnam Q4 GDP Y/Y: 7.0% v 6.9%e
  • (VN) Vietnam Dec CPI Y/Y: 5.2% v 4.0%e
  • (VN) Vietnam Dec Trade Balance: -$1.0B v -$0.2Be
  • (VN) Vietnam Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 11.8% v 11.8% prior
  • (VN) Vietnam Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 6.2% v 5.4% prior
  • (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 123.7K v 129.1K tons prior
  • (ES) Spain Nov Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.6%e; Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.9% prior
  • (CZ) Czech Dec Consumer Confidence: +2.5 v -0.3 prior; Business Confidence: 10.0 v 9.9 prior; Composite (Consumer & Business) Confidence: 8.5v 7.9 prior
  • (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Dec 20th (RUB): 10.84T v 10.77T prior
  • (EU) ECB Economic Bulletin stated that it saw signs of stabilization in global economy beginning to emerge towards the end of the year.
  • (CH) Swiss Dec Credit Suisse Expectations Survey: +12.5 v -3.9 prior
  • (AT) Austria Dec Manufacturing PMI: 46.0 v 46.0 prior (9th straight contraction)
  • (CN) China Q3 Final Current Account: $49.2B v $54.9B prelim
  • (RO) Romania Nov M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.5% v 9.8% prior

Fixed Income Issuance

  • (IN) India sold total INR160B vs.INR160B indicated in 2024, 2031, 2043 and 2049 bonds

Looking Ahead

  • 06:00 (CA) Canada Dec CFIB Business Barometer: No est v 56.1 prior
  • 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 2.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 7.3%e v 4.0% prior
  • 06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e w/e Dec 20th: $454.5B v $453.4B prior
  • 07:00 (BR) Brazil Nov National Unemployment Rate: 11.4%e v 11.6% prior
  • 07:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Trade Balance: -$0.5Be v -$0.7B prior
  • 07:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed)
  • 07:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): 3.370Te v 3.373T prior; M/M: 0.6%e v 0.3% prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: 5.0%e v 5.0% prior
  • 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announcement on upcoming issuance
  • 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
  • 10:00 (CO) Colombia Nov National Unemployment Rate: No est v 9.8% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.1%e v 10.4% prior
  • 10:30 (US) EIA Natural Gas Inventories
  • 11:00 (US) DOE Crude Oil Inventories
  • 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count
  • (PT) Portugal Year-to-Date Budget Report