US Philly Fed and Initial Claims are Just the Beginning
The US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Philly Fed) was released earlier today and the data was not encouraging. The headline number was -12.7 vs an expectation of +15. The February Philly Fed number was +36. Today’s reading is the lowest...
Oil Halts Three-Day Slump But Virus Outbreak, Oversupply Still Weigh
Oil prices rose more than 10% on Thursday after a three-day sell off drove them to their lowest levels in almost two decades as demand plummeted due to the coronavirus and supplies surged in a fight for market share between...
NZ First Impressions: NZ GDP, Q4 2019
GDP increased by 0.5% in the December quarter, with the economy growing by 2.3% over the past year. Today’s result was a little below our forecast, but close to market expectations. Today’s result confirms our view that the economy was...
Rapid Rate Cuts and Extreme Easing
Executive Summary The past week has seen an avalanche of global monetary policy easing, including from the European Central Bank and Bank of England, with most central banks also signaling they are prepared to ease further as needed. Even these...
We Have Revised Our Forecasts For 2020: Deeper Recession And Unemployment Rate To 7%
On Monday, March 9, we forecast that the Australian economy would experience a recession in 2020 with the economy contracting by 0.6% in the first half although we expected growth in the second half of 2.2% as the economy recovered...
EUR/USD To Test Yearly Low?
EUR/USD has dropped through $1.1 its lowest level since late February amid a rush for the safe haven dollar. German ZEW sentiment data caused an already panicked market to fret some more. The ZEW index, which gauged financial analyst’s sentiment...
Markets Enjoy Brief Reprieve
European stock markets are back in positive territory on Tuesday, following yet another chaotic start to the week. While I’d like to think there’s something encouraging about this, I highly doubt there is. These are troubling times for markets and...
Rock Bottom, Central Banks Efforts Go Up in Smoke, About to Get Uglier for Oil, Gold May Gave Formed a Bottom
Active investors feel like they are walking a tight rope without a circus net. The public is a nervous wreck as the virus worry seems to have reach DEFCON 2. Wall Street is now in a fourth week of heightened...
Stocks Crumble Despite Fed Action
If the Fed’s dramatic easing measures were intended to support global markets, then I can’t imagine the carnage we would have faced today without them. As ever, officials have the extremely difficult job of striking the right balance in response...
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: A Case In Exogenous Shocks
U.S. Review A Case in Exogenous Shocks Financial conditions tightened sharply this week as concerns over the coronavirus and the economic fallout of containment efforts mounted. We now look for the FOMC to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) 100...
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