US Election Monitor #1: Divided Congress Still Most Likely Outcome With One Month to Go
Election day on 6 November is drawing closer. In August and September, the generic ballot polls moved in favour of the Democrats – from 47.6% at the beginning of August, to 49.0% at the time of writing. Still, according to...
Italian Politics Monitor: The (Budget) Genie is Out of the Bottle
Italian budget plan is based on optimistic growth and interest rate assumptions, while the revenue side remains vague. Our base case is now that the EU Commission will give a negative viewpoint and ask for a revision of the budget,...
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Not Good, They’re Great!!!
U.S. Review Hurricane Distortions Hold Back September Job Growth The September ISM Manufacturing Index came in slightly below expectations, at 59.8, but remains above its average for the past year. Motor vehicle sales substantially topped expectations in September, climbing to...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Its A Relief to have the US-M-C-A!
U.S. Highlights The big story of the week is the trade deal struck just in the nick of time between U.S. and Canada. The new USMCA deal will see Canada joining the agreement previously worked out between the U.S. and...
Week Ahead – Dollar Slows Down After US Jobs Miss
The US dollar was mixed Friday. The greenback advanced against the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD AND NZD) edging higher against the CHF, but was lower agains the JPY and the EUR. The GBP deserves a special mention as positive Brexit...
More Yielding to Yields Next Week?
What a barn burner of a week!! Fixed income took centre stage, but the lingering odour from risk aversion and choppy intraday moves will continue to challenge traders at every twist and turn. With US yields remaining at multi-year highs...
Week Ahead: Stocks, Yen Crosses in Focus as Yields Surge
So, Friday’s US jobs report missed on the headline front and the dollar’s immediate response was to go down. The weaker employment reading was in part due to hurricane Florence. However, the non-farm payrolls report didn’t trigger a massive move...
Australia & New Zealand Weekly: Big Fall in AUD is Behind Us
Week beginning 8 October 2018 Big fall in AUD is behind us. RBA: Financial Stability Review, Assistant Governor (Economic) Ellis speaks. Australia: Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment, housing finance, NAB business survey. NZ: retail card spending, house sales and prices. China: new...
Week Ahead – US Inflation and Chinese Trade Figures to Highlight Quiet Week
US inflation indicators and Chinese trade numbers will be the big data releases during the next seven days, with the economic calendar otherwise looking relatively light. August industrial output figures will be the focus in Europe, while the minutes of...
Weekly Focus: Italian Reprise
Market movers ahead The focus in the euro area next week will stay on Italy and the ongoing budget fight. Italian government bonds have come under renewed pressure, as the risk of a new debt crisis in the medium term...
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