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Weekly Focus: Political Uncertainty Here to Stay

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Fundamental analysis of Forex market

Market movers ahead

  • In Norway, Q2 GDP growth data is due out on Thursday. The print will reveal whether or not a slowdown has been under way in Norway.
  • Next week, we get preliminary PMIs in Europe, the US and Japan.
  • We do not expect any major new information from either the FOMC or ECB meeting minutes.
  • Donald Trump’s 25% tariff rate on an additional USD16bn worth of imported goods from China comes into effect on Thursday.

Global macro and market themes

  • Theme 1: Brexit end-game in Q4.
  • Theme 2: US-China trade war continues.
  • Theme 3: US sanctions against Iran, Russia and Turkey.
  • Theme 4: US midterm elections in November.
  • Theme 5: Italy budget clashes with the EU.
  • Theme 6: China is easing policy to offset slowdown and trade war uncertainties.

Full Report in PDF