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Quiet Start To Week With Focus Remaining On Trade, Turkey And Upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium

Notes/Observations

  • Currency crisis in Turkey and trade talks between the US/China likely to remain in focus this week; Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium begins Thursday evening
  • Minutes from the recent Fed and ECB meetings will be released on Wednesday and Thursday Asia:
  • US and China reportedly plot roadmap to resolve trade dispute before President Trump-Pres Xi meeting in Nov
  • South Korea government said to plan to increase the 2019 budget by 9.7% to KRW470T

Europe:

  • ECB’s Weidmann (Germany): On course to normalize monetary policy and reiterates that process would be gradual
  • Germany Finance Ministry Monthly Report noted that the persistent debate about tariffs and the threat of a trade war was choking trade activity. Cited Turkey as a global economic risk
  • Moodys cuts Turkey sovereign rating one notch to Ba3 from Ba2; outlook negative
  • S&P cuts Turkey sovereign rating one notch to B+ from BB-; outlook stable
  • S&P affirmed Hungary sovereign rating at BBB-; outlook positive
  • Fitch affirmed Russia sovereign rating at BBB-; outlook Positive
  • ESM: Greece had successfully concluded its bailout program (as expected)
  • Italy expected to launch its infrastructure plan in Sept
  • Italy’s PM office’s Giorgetti. Hopes ECB quantitative easing will be extended
  • First ‘no-deal’ technical notices to be published on Thursday, Aug 26th

Americas:

  • White House Chief Economist Hassett: we are very close to trade deal with Mexico. Still a few sticking points in trade discussions
  • White House Counsel Don McGahn has cooperated extensively in Mueller Inquiry
  • US administration has rejected efforts by Turkey to link the release of US Pastor Brunson with relief for Turkish bank Halkbank which faces potential fines for violating US sanctions on Iran
  • Venezuela President Maduro announces massive 95% devaluation with new FX rate tied to Cryptocurrency
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Energy:

  • Senior Iranian diplomat said to have asked OPEC Sec Gen Barkindo to keep OPEC away from political agenda of some member

Economic Data:

  • (DE) Germany July PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.0%e
  • (SE) Sweden Q2 Industry Capacity: 90.9% v 90.3% prior
  • (TW) Taiwan July Export Orders Y/Y: 8.0% v 2.9%e
  • (PL) Poland July Sold Industrial Output M/M: -5.3% v -5.7%e; Y/Y: 10.3% v 10.0%e; Construction Output Y/Y: 18.7% v 22.3%e
  • (PL) Poland July PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.5%e
  • (CH) Swiss Total Sight Deposits w/e Aug 17th (CHF): 576.7B v 576.1B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 472.6B v 473.4B prior
  • (GR) G