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USDTRY Outlook: Lira’s Bears Take A Breather, Inflation Report In Focus For Fresh Signals

Turkish lira rose on Friday, taking a breather of four-day fall which hit the lowest since 13 Aug record low, on spike to 6.8379 on Thursday.

Fresh support to lira came from decision to lower withhold taxes on lira’s deposits and increase tax levels on foreign currencies deposits.

Lira appreciated and spiked to 6.3820 on Friday, but the actions the government is taking are likely to have short-lived positive impact on the currency, which remains under strong pressure and has registered significant losses in 2018.

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At the same time, Turkish President Erdogan blamed outside factors for weakening lira and attempting to destabilize the economy, however, the key problem seems to be high inflation and inadequate reaction of Turkish central bank.

Inflation report is due on Monday, with rising fears that lira may come under increased pressure if numbers show further increase of inflation.

It will be also interesting to watch the reaction of the CBRT which holds monetary policy meeting on 13 Sep.

If the central bank fails to tackle inflation in an expected way, lira may sink further and enter uncharted territory again.

On the other side, technical studies, which so far had a minor role in directing the USDTRY pair, show negative signals developing on daily chart.

South-heading momentum is entering negative territory and slow stochastic is reversing from overbought territory and also forming bear-cross, suggesting deeper pullback from recovery high at 6.8379.

Initial support at 6.3980 zone (Fibo 38.2% of 5.6875/6.8379, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen) contained dips for now, with sustained break here needed to signal deeper pullback.

Res: 6.7837, 6.8379, 6.9577, 7.1074
Sup: 6.5664, 6.3980, 6.3820, 6.2436

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