US Dollar Retreats Ahead Of The Thanksgiving Weekend

Fundamental analysis of Forex market

The price of crude oil eased in the Asian session after the EIA released its weekly inventory data. The numbers showed that inventories rose by 4.85 million, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 2.5 million. It was lower than the previous week’s 10 million barrels. The number by EIA was different to that released by the American Petroleum Institute (API). The latter showed a drawdown of 1.545 million barrels.

The US dollar index moved slightly lower in the Asian session today. This followed disappointing economic numbers released yesterday. The continuing jobless claims over the past week increased to 1,668K, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 1,635K. The initial jobless claims rose to 224K. Durable goods orders in October declined by minus 4.4% while the core durable goods orders rose by 0.1%. This was lower than the predicted 0.4%. At the same time, the Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 97.5, which was lower than the expected 98.4.

The yen was little moved today after Japan released its CPI numbers. The national core CPI plateaued to 1.0% in October. The core CPI moved slightly higher to 0.2% while the national CPI rose by 1.4%.

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The USD/JPY pair started moving in an upward trend on Tuesday this week when it reached a low of 112.30. This ended a major decline that started on Monday last week. The pair has found resistance along the 113.00 level, where it is currently consolidating. The current price is along the important 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. With no other major economic numbers expected today, the pair will likely continue to consolidate. If it moves up, it will likely test the 113.22 level, which is the 50% Fibonacci level. If it moves lower, it will test the 23.6% Fibonacci level of 112.7.


After rising yesterday, the XTI/USD pair resumed a downward trend following inventory numbers released by the EIA. The pair is trading at 54.38, which is slightly lower than yesterday’s high of 55.82. On the four-hour chart below, the pair shows that it will likely continue moving lower. This is indicated by the double EMA and the RSI, which is currently at 38. Over the next week, the price could also consolidate as traders wait for the final statement by OPEC+ after their meeting in Vienna.


During the past week, the EUR/USD pair has been moving in an upward trend. The trend started when it reached a low of 1.1215. On Tuesday, the pair moved significantly lower. Today, it is relatively unchanged from yesterday’s close. The current price of 1.1395 is also slightly lower than the important resistance level shown below. With no economic data expected from the US, and with most US traders staying out of the market today, the main drivers for the pair will be from Europe. Its RSI is currently at 52 while the double EMA have flattened. This means that the pair could move in either direction.