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EURCHF Remains Cautiously Negative In Medium-Term

EURCHF remains on a soft footing, trading firmly below both its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (MAs), which keeps the broader outlook cautiously negative. That said, a decisive break below the August lows of 1.1180 is required to signal that the broader downtrend is back in force.

Short-term oscillators mostly support a negative bias. The RSI is below 50 and pointing lower, though the MACD has just crossed above its red trigger line; a signal that negative momentum may be fading a little.

Further declines could encounter immediate support around 1.2225, the December 11 trough, before the 1½-year low of 1.1180 comes into view. Even lower, the 1.1130 zone would attract attention, marked by the peak of May 2016.

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On the other hand, resistance to advances may be found initially at 1.1340, the inside swing low of October 26. The next obstacle to the upside may be the 50-day SMA at 1.1365, where a bullish violation could turn the picture to a more neutral one, setting the stage for a test of 1.1435 – this being the top of November 16.

In short, as long as the pair remains below the 50-day MA the outlook is cautiously negative, with a clear move under 1.1180 needed to turn it firmly bearish.

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