USDZAR has continued to print lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart, keeping the medium-term picture decisively negative. Enhancing this view, price action is taking place firmly below both the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Notice that the two seem set to meet soon, and if the 50-day falls below the 200-day one, that would mark a so-called “death cross”.
Short-term momentum oscillators are inconclusive but support a broadly bearish picture. The RSI is near its oversold zone though seems to be bottoming, while the MACD just crossed below its trigger line.
Further declines in the pair could encounter initial support around 13.07, the July low, with even steeper declines aiming for 12.90 – a zone marked by the peaks of May. Lower still, attention would shift to the 12.37 area, which capped the pullback on May 24.
On the other hand, a rebound may meet resistance around 13.53, the December low. An upside break could see the bulls challenge the 200-day SMA at 13.82, and if they overcome that, the next obstacle is the crossroads of the 50-day SMA and the 13.97 zone.
In short, the picture is firmly negative, though a break above the aforementioned crossroads could turn it neutral.
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