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Gold Price Could Continue To Rise Near Term

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Technical analysis of Forex market

Key Highlights

  • Gold price found support near $1,292 recently and climbed above $1,300 against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $1,305 on the 4-hours chart of XAU/USD.
  • The US Factory Orders increased 0.1% in Jan 2019 (MoM), less than the +0.3% forecast.
  • The Fed Interest Rate Decision is scheduled later today (forecast 2.5%, versus 2.5% previous).

Gold Price Technical Analysis

After a significant decline, gold price found support near the $1,280 level against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh rebound, formed a swing low near $1,292, and extended gains above $1,300.

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The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price corrected lower after trading as high as $1,311. It declined below the $1,300 support and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1,280 low $1,311 high.

However, the $1,292 area acted as a strong support along with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1,280 low $1,311 high. As a result, the price started a fresh upward move and broke the $1,300 and $1,305 resistance levels.

There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $1,305 on the 4-hours chart of XAU/USD. It opened the doors for more gains above $1,305 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

Therefore, there are high chances of more gains above the $1,310 and $1,315 resistance levels in the near term. On the downside, the price is likely to find support near the $1,304 and $1,300 levels.

Fundamentally, the US Factory Orders report for Jan 2019 was released by the US Census Bureau. The market was looking for a 0.3% rise in orders in Jan 2019, compared with the previous month.

Though, the result was lower than the forecast as there was only 0.1% rise in orders, similar to the last reading. Besides, this was the second consecutive increase in the US Factory Orders.

Overall, gold price is gaining bullish momentum and it is likely to climb above $1,315 in the coming days. Looking at the major pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD, a decent rebound is underway, with an increase in selling pressure on the greenback.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • UK Producer Price Index (input) Feb 2019 (YoY) – Forecast +4.3%, versus +2.9% previous.
  • UK Producer Price Index (Input) Feb 2019 (MoM) – Forecast +0.9%, versus -0.1% previous.
  • UK Consumer Price Index Feb 2019 (YoY) – Forecast +1.8%, versus +1.8% previous.
  • UK Core Consumer Price Index Feb 2019 (YoY) – Forecast +1.9%, versus +1.9% previous.
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision – Forecast 2.5%, versus 2.5% previous.

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