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Gold Price Uptrend Facing Many Hurdles

Key Highlights

  • Gold price started a solid upward move from the $1,282 support against the US Dollar.
  • There is a significant ascending channel formed with support at $1,308 on the 4-hours chart of XAU/USD.
  • The US Trade Balance in Jan 2019 posted a deficit of $-51.1B, better than the $-57.0B forecast.
  • The US Gross Domestic Product in Q4 2018 is likely to grow 2.4%, down from the last 2.6%.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

After trading towards the $1,282 level, gold price started a strong upward move against the US Dollar. The price traded above the $1,295 and $1,300 resistance levels to move into an uptrend.

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The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price settled above the $1,300 pivot level, plus the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

There were multiple swing highs and lows, but the price followed a bullish path and traded above the $1,320 resistance. However, the price faced a strong hurdle near the $1,325 level, which was a support earlier.

A high was formed near $1,324 and later the price corrected below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $1,303 low $1,324 high.

However, there are many supports on the downside near the $1,305 level and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). Besides, there is a significant ascending channel formed with support at $1,308 on the 4-hours chart of XAU/USD.

If there is a break and close below the channel support, the price could extend losses towards the $1,303 swing low and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). On the flip side, a convincing break above the $1,325 resistance will most likely set the pace for more gains towards the $1,330 and $1,334 levels.

Fundamentally, the US Trade Balance report for Jan 2019 was released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The market was looking for a trade deficit of around $-57.0B.

Though, the result was better than the forecast as there was a trade deficit of $-51.1B, improved from the last revised reading of $-59.9B. The report added that:

The January decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $8.2 billion to $73.3 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.5 billion to $22.1 billion.

Overall, gold price remains supported for more gains as long as it stays above $1,303. Looking at major pairs, EUR/USD declined heavily recently below 1.1300 and GBP/USD seems to be consolidating below the 1.3280 resistance.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • Euro Zone Business Climate Index March 2019 – Forecast 0.66, versus 0.69 previous.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 225K, versus 221K previous.
  • US Gross Domestic Product Q4 2018 – Forecast 2.4% versus previous 2.6%.
  • German CPI for March 2019 (Prelim) (YoY) – Forecast +1.6%, versus +1.5% previous.
  • German CPI for March 2019 (Prelim) (MoM) – Forecast +0.6%, versus +0.4% previous.

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