Short term Elliott Wave view on Oil suggests the pullback to $63 ended wave 4. Rally in wave 5 is currently in progress and subdivides as an Elliott Wave impulse structure. Up from $63, wave ((i)) ended at $64.61, wave ((ii)) ended at $63.46, and wave ((3)) is expected to complete soon. Both wave ((i)) and wave ((iii)) also subdivide as an Elliott Wave structure of lesser degree.
Wave ((iii)) shows an extension and almost reaches 161.8 Fibonacci extension. In Elliott Wave Principle, wave 3 typically is the longest and usually reaches at least 161.8 Fibonacci extension. Wave ((4)) pullback should hold above $63 in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside. In Elliott Wave Principle, wave ((4)) should not overlap with wave ((1)). Therefore, wave ((4)) should not break into the territory of wave ((i)) at $64.61. Typically wave ((4)) is 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave ((3)). We need wave ((3)) to complete first before we can better measure the potential target for wave ((4)). We don’t like selling Oil and expect extension higher as far as pivot at $63 stays intact.
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