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Euro Bears Frustrated by Mixed US Data but More Evidence Needed to Signal Reversal

The EURUSD stayed at familiar levels following choppy reaction on today’s key event, release of US Q1 GDP data.

Surprise acceleration of US growth in the first three months in 2019 (3.2% vs 2.2 prev and 2.0% f/c) was positive signal. The dollar jumped across the board in immediate reaction but bullish signal was offset by weaker than expected Core PCE indicator which fell below expectations (1.3% vs 1.6 f/c and 1.8% prev).

Core PCE is one of Fed’s key references and today’s miss could signal that the US central bank would stay on hold for extended period of time, with growing expectations that Fed may cut interest rates by the end of the year.

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Mixed US data could discourage Euro bears, as investors in changed conditions, would look to exit dollar longs that would boost recovery of Euro after the currency hit new 23-month low at 1.1111 after data release today.

Improved conditions of one and four-hour charts support recovery attempts, however, dailies continue to maintain strong bearish momentum, but are oversold.

Fresh recovery is on track for bullish close on Friday and potential formation of bullish outside day pattern which would generate initial bullish signal for further recovery action.

In this case, 1.1180/1.1200 zone will mark pivotal point (former lows/Fibo 38.2% of 1.1323/1.1111 bear-leg) violation of which would generate initial reversal signal.

Conversely, limited recovery would signal that bears keep control and would signal extended consolidation before fresh push lower.

Res: 1.1162; 1.1186; 1.1200; 1.1226
Sup: 1.1111; 1.1070; 1.1058; 1.1000

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