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EUR/USD Outlook: The Euro Consolidates Above Key Supports After Strong Upside Rejection, ECB Policy Meeting Eyed For Fresh Signals

The Euro attempts to stabilize above 55SMA (1.1214) after Wednesday’s strong upside rejection (1.1306) and subsequent pullback that left bearish daily candle with long upper shadow.

Repeated failure to clear key barriers, provided by daily cloud top/100SMA (1.1277) despite spike higher, shifted immediate risk lower, however, strong bullish momentum underpins and expected to keep alive hopes for fresh upside attempts while the price holds above 55SMA.

On the other side, bearish divergence on daily stochastic warns and keeps the downside vulnerable.

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Break of 55SMA and more significant 1.1202/1.1190 zone (daily cloud base/converged 10,20/30 SMA’s) would generate strong bearish signal and risk further retracement of 1.1116/1.1306 recovery leg.

Better than expected German factory orders (Apr 0.3% vs 0.1% f/c), released earlier, offered mild support, as focus turns towards ECB’s policy meeting due later today. The European central bank is expected to stick to its non-standard measures in order to boost bloc’s economy, weakened by escalating global trade war that threatens to further slow global growth.

ECB’s President Mario Draghi is expected to maintain dovish tone, but would likely keep some stronger measures on hold as the economic outlook darkens. Stronger dovish tone from the ECB, although the monetary policy ammunition is limited (as the ECB pushed its main interest rate below zero and bought 2.6 trillion euros worth bonds), is expected to weigh on Euro and keep near-term focus at the downside. Conversely, bullish scenario requires sustained break above 100SMA/daily cloud top to signal continuation of recovery from 1.1110 zone base.

Res: 1.1237, 1.1263, 1.1279, 1.1306
Sup: 1.1214, 1.1202, 1.1190, 1.1160

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