GBP/USD Outlook: UK Inflation Below 2% Could Further Depress Pound

Technical analysis of Forex market

Cable is trading within narrow range in early European session and awaiting release of UK inflation data which are expected to provide fresh signal.

The pair was so far unable to benefit from Tuesday’s bullish close (the first after five straight day’s in red) following bounce from new low at 1.2505 (the lowest since 3 Jan), as overall structure remains negative.

Fears of no-deal Brexit continue to pressure pound as Boris Johnson extends lead over rivals in the race for PM position.

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Technical studies remain in bearish setup and add to negative outlook.

UK CPI is forecasted at 2% in May vs 2.1% previous month and markets fear that pound could fall further if today’s release falls below expectations that would also harm expectations for BOE rate hike before Brexit.

Near-term price action holds below initial barriers at 1.2559 (former low of 31 May) and 1.2580 (falling 5SMA), which guard pivotal resistance at 1.2634 (daily Tenkan-sen / 50% of 1.2462/1.2506 bear-leg), break of which would ease pressure.

On the other side, break below 1.2505 would open way towards Fibo projections at 1.2481 and 1.2433 and unmask key support at 1.2397 (2019 low posted on 3 Jan).

Res: 1.2569, 1.2580, 1.2604, 1.2634
Sup: 1.2542, 1.2532, 1.2505, 1.2481

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